FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas BT AF van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane AS 1:1;2:2;3:3;4:3;5:4;6:5;7:6,7;8:8;9:4;10:3;11:9;12:1;13:9;14:10;15:5;16:11,12;17:3;18:3; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:;11:PDG-ODE-LITTORAL-LERBL;12:;13:PDG-ODE-DYNECO-PELAGOS;14:;15:;16:;17:;18:; C1 Department of Coastal Systems, Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Texel, Netherlands Department of Informatiks, Scientific Computing Group, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany Department of Marine and Coastal Systems, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands Operational Directorate Natural Environment, Royal Belgian Institute for Natural Sciences (RBINS), Brussels, Belgium Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Lowestoft, United Kingdom Joint Research Centre, Directorate D – Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment (ICBM), Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany DYNECO-PELAGOS Laboratory, Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Plouzané, France Department of Research and Development, Oceanography, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Institute of Coastal Systems: Analysis and Modelling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany Operational Modelling Group, Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany C2 NIOZ, NETHERLANDS UNIV HAMBURG, GERMANY DELTARES, NETHERLANDS ROYAL BELGIAN INST NAT SCI, BELGIUM CEFAS, UK JRC, ITALY LEIBNIZ INST BALT SEA RES (IOW), GERMANY UNIV OLDENBURG, GERMANY IFREMER, FRANCE SMHI, SWEDEN HZG, GERMANY BSH, GERMANY SI BOULOGNE BREST SE PDG-ODE-LITTORAL-LERBL PDG-ODE-DYNECO-PELAGOS IN WOS Ifremer UPR DOAJ copubli-europe IF 3.7 TC 3 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00836/94836/102388.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00836/94836/102389.pdf LA English DT Article DE ;eutrophication;North Sea;OSPAR ICG-EMO;DIN;DIP;nutrients;chlorophyll;ecosystem modelling AB The pre-eutrophic state of marine waters is generally not well known, complicating target setting for management measures to combat eutrophication. We present results from an OSPAR ICG-EMO model assessment to simulate the pre-eutrophic state of North-East Atlantic marine waters. Using an ecosystem model ensemble combined with an observation-based weighting method we derive sophisticated estimates for key eutrophication indicators. Eight modelling centres applied the same riverine nutrient loads, atmospheric nutrient deposition rates and boundary conditions to their specific model set-up to ensure comparability. The pre-eutrophic state was defined as a historic scenario of estimated nutrient inputs (riverine, atmospheric) at around the year 1900, before the invention and widespread use of industrial fertilizers. The period 2009-2014 was used by all participants to simulate both the current state of eutrophication and the pre-eutrophic scenario, to ensure that differences are solely due to the changes in nutrient inputs between the scenarios. Mean values were reported for winter dissolved inorganic nutrients and total nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) and the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio, and for growing season chlorophyll, chlorophyll 90th percentile, near-bed oxygen minimum and net phytoplankton production on the level of the OSPAR assessment areas. Results showed distinctly lower nutrient concentrations and nitrogen to phosphorus ratio’s in coastal areas under pre-eutrophic conditions compared to current conditions (except in the Meuse Plume and Seine Plume areas). Chlorophyll concentrations were estimated to be as much as ~40% lower in some areas, as were dissolved inorganic phosphorus levels. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen levels were found to be up to 60% lower in certain assessment areas. The weighted average approach reduced model disparities, and delivered pre-eutrophic concentrations in each assessment area. Our results open the possibility to establish reference values for indicators of eutrophication across marine regions. The use of the new assessment areas ensures local ecosystem functioning is better represented while political boundaries are largely ignored. As such, the reference values are less associated to member states boundaries than to ecosystem boundaries. PY 2023 PD MAY SO Frontiers In Marine Science SN 2296-7745 PU Frontiers Media SA VL 10 UT 000995911600001 DI 10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 ID 94836 ER EF