FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Evaluating the strategies to control SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant spread in New Caledonia, a Zero COVID country until September 2021
BT 
AF Ochida, Noé
   Dupont-Rouzeyrol, Myrielle
   Moury, Pierre-Henri
   Demaneuf, Thibaut
   Gourinat, Ann-Clair
   Mabon, Sébastien
   Jouan, Marc
   Cauchemez, Simon
   Mangeas, Morgan
AS 1:1,2;2:2;3:3,4,5;4:6;5:7;6:6;7:2,4;8:8;9:1;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;
C1 UMR ENTROPIE, IRD/Univ. Réunion/IFREMER/Univ. de Nouvelle-Calédonie/CNRS, Nouméa, New Caledonia
   PNC Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Pasteur Network, URE-DA Dengue et Arboviruses Unit, 98845, Nouméa, New Caledonia
   CHU Grenoble Alpes, Pôle Anesthésie-Réanimation, CS 10217, CEDEX 9, Grenoble, France
   IPNC Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Pasteur Network, URE-EPI Epidemiology Unit, 98845, Nouméa, New Caledonia
   Centre Hospitalier Territorial Gaston-Bourret, Intensive Care Unit, Dumbea-Sur-Mer, 98835, New Caledonia
   DASS Direction des Affaires Sanitaires et Sociales, Nouméa, New Caledonia
   Centre Hospitalier Territorial Gaston-Bourret, Microbiology Laboratory, Dumbea-Sur-Mer, 98835, New Caledonia
   Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
C2 UNIV NOUVELLE CALEDONIE, FRANCE
   INST PASTEUR, FRANCE
   CHU GRENOBLE ALPES, FRANCE
   INST PASTEUR, FRANCE
   CHT GASTON-BOURRET, FRANCE
   DASS, FRANCE
   CHT GASTON-BOURRET, FRANCE
   INST PASTEUR, FRANCE
UM ENTROPIE
IN WOS Cotutelle UMR
   DOAJ
   copubli-france
TC 0
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00844/95642/103408.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00844/95642/103409.zip
LA English
DT Article
DE ;COVID-19;SARS-CoV-2;Zero-COVID;Non-pharmaceutical interventions;Vaccine;Modelling
AB Objectives New Caledonia, a former Zero-COVID country, was confronted with a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak in September 2021. We evaluate the relative contribution of vaccination, lockdown and timing of interventions on healthcare burden. Methods We developed an age-stratified mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination calibrated for New Caledonia and evaluated three alternative scenarios. Results High virus transmission early on was estimated, R0 equal to 6.6 (95% CI [6.4 – 6.7]). Lockdown reduced R0 by 73% (95% CI [70 - 76%]). Easing the lockdown increased transmission (39% reduction of the initial R0); but we did not observe an epidemic rebound. This contrasts with the rebound in hospital admissions (+116% total hospital admissions) that would have been expected in the absence of an intensified vaccination campaign (76,220 people or 34.12% of the eligible population were first-dose vaccinated during one month of lockdown). A 15-day earlier lockdown would have led to a significant reduction in the magnitude of the epidemic (-53% total hospital admissions). Conclusions The success of the response against the Delta variant epidemic in New Caledonia was due to an effective lockdown that provided additional time for people to vaccinate. Earlier lockdown would have greatly mitigated the magnitude of the epidemic. 
PY 2023
PD SEP
SO Ijid Regions
SN 2772-7076
PU Elsevier
VL 8
UT 001133365200001
BP 64
EP 70
DI 10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.06.004
ID 95642
ER

EF