FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
BT 
AF Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea
   Blanchard, Julia L.
   Coll, Marta
   Pontavice, Hubert Du
   Everett, Jason D.
   Guiet, Jerome
   Heneghan, Ryan F.
   Maury, Olivier
   Novaglio, Camilla
   Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano
   Petrik, Colleen M.
   Tittensor, Derek P.
   Lotze, Heike K.
AS 1:1,2;2:3,4;3:5,6;4:7;5:8,9,10;6:11;7:12;8:13;9:3,4;10:14;11:15;12:1,16;13:1;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:;11:;12:;13:;
C1 Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
   Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada
   Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
   Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
   Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
   Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
   Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
   School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia
   Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia
   Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
   Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
   School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
   MARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Sète, France
   Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
   Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, USA
   United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
C2 UNIV DALHOUSIE, CANADA
   UNIV MEMORIAL, CANADA
   UNIV TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA
   UNIV TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA
   ICM CSIC, SPAIN
   ECOPATH INT INITIAT RES ASSOC, SPAIN
   UNIV PRINCETON, USA
   UNIV QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA
   CSIRO, AUSTRALIA
   UNIV NEW S WALES, AUSTRALIA
   UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES, USA
   UNIV QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA
   IRD, FRANCE
   MPO, CANADA
   UNIV CALIF SAN DIEGO, USA
   UNEP WCMC, UK
UM MARBEC
IN WOS Cotutelle UMR
   DOAJ
   copubli-europe
   copubli-int-hors-europe
IF 3.1
TC 0
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00856/96825/105395.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00856/96825/105397.docx
LA English
DT Article
DE ;climate change impacts;ensemble modelling;marine biomass projections;MPAs;OECMs;Atlantic Canada
AB Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region. 
PY 2023
PD AUG
SO Facets
SN 2371-1671
PU Canadian Science Publishing
VL 8
UT 001072816700001
BP 1
EP 16
DI 10.1139/facets-2023-0024
ID 96825
ER

EF