FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output? BT AF Fuentes, M. M. P. B. Santos, A. J. B. Abreu‐Grobois, A. Briseño‐Dueñas, R. Al‐Khayat, J. Hamza, Samir Saliba, S. Anderson, D. Rusenko, K. W. Mitchell, N. J. Gammon, M. Bentley, B. P. Beton, D. Booth, D. T. B. Broderick, A. C. Colman, L. P. Snape, R. T. E. Calderon‐Campuzano, M. F. Cuevas, E. Lopez‐Castro, M. C. Flores‐Aguirre, C. D. Mendez de la Cruz, F. Segura‐Garcia, Y. Ruiz‐Garcia, A. Fossette, S. Gatto, C. R. Reina, R. D. Girondot, M. Godfrey, M. Guzman‐Hernandez, V. Hart, C. E. Kaska, Y. Lara, P. H. Marcovaldi, M. A. G. D. LeBlanc, A. M. Rostal, D. Liles, M. J. Wyneken, J. Lolavar, A. Williamson, S. A. Manoharakrishnan, M. Pusapati, C. Chatting, M. Mohd Salleh, S. Patricio, A. R. Regalla, A. Restrepo, J. Garcia, R. Santidrián Tomillo, P. Sezgin, C. Shanker, K. Tapilatu, F. Turkozan, O. Valverde, R. A. Williams, K. Yilmaz, C. Tolen, N. Nel, R. Tucek, J. Legouvello, D. Rivas, M. L. Gaspar, C. Touron, M. Genet, Q. Salmon, M. Araujo, M. R. Freire, J. B. Castheloge, V. D. Jesus, P. R. Ferreira, P. D. Paladino, F. V. Montero‐Flores, D. Sozbilen, D. MONSINJON, Jonathan AS 1:1;2:1;3:2;4:2;5:3;6:3;7:3;8:4;9:4;10:5;11:5;12:5,6;13:7;14:8;15:9;16:9;17:6,9;18:10;19:11;20:12;21:13;22:13;23:13;24:13;25:5,14;26:15;27:15;28:16;29:17,18,19;30:20;31:21;32:22;33:23;34:23;35:24;36:24;37:25;38:26;39:26;40:15,26;41:27;42:27;43:3,28;44:29;45:9,30;46:31;47:32;48:;49:33;50:34;51:35;52:27,36;53:37;54:38;55:32,39;56:40;57:41;58:42;59:42;60:42;61:43;62:44;63:44;64:44;65:26;66:45;67:46;68:47;69:48;70:49;71:50;72:50;73:51;74:52; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:;11:;12:;13:;14:;15:;16:;17:;18:;19:;20:;21:;22:;23:;24:;25:;26:;27:;28:;29:;30:;31:;32:;33:;34:;35:;36:;37:;38:;39:;40:;41:;42:;43:;44:;45:;46:;47:;48:;49:;50:;51:;52:;53:;54:;55:;56:;57:;58:;59:;60:;61:;62:;63:;64:;65:;66:;67:;68:;69:;70:;71:;72:;73:;74:PDG-RBE-DOI; C1 Marine Turtle Research, Ecology, and Conservation Group, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University Tallahassee Florida ,USA Unidad Academica Mazatlan, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnologia UNAM Mazatlan Sinaloa ,Mexico Environmental Science Centre Qatar University Doha, Qatar Gumbo Limbo Nature Center Boca Raton Florida, USA School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia Crawley Western Australia ,Australia Department of Environmental Conservation University of Massachusetts Amherst Massachusetts ,USA Society for Protection of Turtles Gonyeli Northern ,Cyprus School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland St Lucia Queensland, Australia Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter Penryn,UK Programa de Protección y Conservación de Tortugas Marinas Convenio FONATUR—Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología‐UNAM Mazatlán Sinaloa, Mexico Instituto de Investigaciones Oceanologicas Universidad Autonoma de Baja California Ensenada, Mexico Pronatura Península de Yucatán, A. C. Programa para la Conservación de la Tortuga Marina Mérida Yucatán, Mexico Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Ciudad de México, Mexico Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions Kensington Western Australia ,Australia School of Biological Sciences Monash University Clayton Victoria ,Australia Université Paris‐Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution Gif‐sur‐Yvette ,France North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission Beaufort North Carolina ,USA Duke Marine Laboratory, Nicholas School of Environment Duke University Beaufort North Carolina ,USA Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina ,USA APFFLT‐CONANP Campeche ,Mexico Centro de Investigaciones Oceánicas del Mar de Cortés—Gran Acuario de Mazatlán Mazatlán, Mexico Department of Biology, Faculty of Science Pamukkale University Denizli ,Turkey Fundação Projeto Tamar Florianópolis,Brazil Georgia Southern University Statesboro Georgia,USA Asociacion ProCosta San Salvador,El Salvador Department of Biological Sciences Florida Atlantic University Boca Raton Florida ,USA Dakshin Foundation Bangalore ,ndia School of Civil Engineering University College Dublin Dublin,Ireland School of Biological Sciences Universiti Sains Malaysia Penang ,Malaysia Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre/ARNET—Aquatic Research Network Ispa—Instituto Universitário de Ciências Psicológicas Lisbon ,Portugal Instituto da Biodiversidade e das Áreas Protegidas, Dr. Alfredo Simão da Silva (IBAP) Bissau ,Guinea‐Bissau Sea Turtle Conservancy Gainesville Florida,USA Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats Esporles Illes Balears,Spain Sea Turtle Research Rescue and Rehabilitation Center (DEKAMER) Mugla ,Turkey Centre for Ecological Sciences Indian Institute of Science Bangalore, India Research Center of Pacific Marine Resources—University of Papua (UNIPA) Manokwari Papua Barat ,Indonesia Department of Biology, Faculty of Science Aydın Adnan Menderes University Aydın ,Turkey Biological Sciences Southeastern Louisiana University Hammond Louisiana ,USA Caretta Research Project Savannah Georgia ,USA Hakkari University Vocational School of Health Services Hakkari,Turkey Universiti Malaysia Terengganu Kuala Nerus ,Malaysia Department of Zoology, Institute for Coastal and Marine Research Nelson Mandela University Gqeberha ,South Africa Department of Biology University of Cadiz Cadiz ,Spain Te Mana O Te Moana Moorea‐Maiao,French Polynesia Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales San Salvador,El Salvador Fundação Espírito Santense de Tecnologia—FEST Vitória Espírito Santo ,Brazil Biogran Análises Ambientais Vila Velha, Brazil Econservation Estudos e Projetos Ambientais Vitória Espírito Santo, Brazil Departamento de Gemologia Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo Vitória Espírito Santo ,Brazil Purdue University Fort Wayne Fort Wayne Indiana, USA Department of Veterinary, Acıpayam Vocational School Pamukkale University Denizli, Turkey Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) Délégation Océan Indien (DOI) Le Port La Réunion ,France C2 UNIV FLORIDA STATE, USA UNAM, MEXICO UNIV DOHA, QATAR GUMBO LIMBO NATURE CENTER, USA UNIV WESTERN AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA UNIV MASSACHUSETTS, USA SPOT, CYPRUS UNIV QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA UNIV EXETER, UK UNAM, MEXICO UNIV AUTONOMA BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO PRONATURA PPY, MEXICO UNAM, MEXICO BCS, AUSTRALIA UNIV MONASH, AUSTRALIA UNIV PARIS‐SACLAY, FRANCE NC WILDLIFE, USA UNIV DUKE, USA UNIV N CAROLINA STATE, USA CONANP, MEXICO CIOMC, MEXICO UNIV PAMUKKALE, TURKEY FUNDACAO PROJETO TAMAR, BRAZIL UNIV GEORGIA, USA ASOCIACION PROCOSTA, EL SALVADOR UNIV FLORIDA, USA DAKSHIN FND, NDIA UNIV COLL DUBLIN, IRELAND UNIV SAINS MALAYSIA, MALAYSIA UNIV LISBON, PORTUGAL IBAP, GUINEA‐BISSAU SEA TURTLE CONSERVANCY, USA IMEDEA, SPAIN DEKAMER, TURKEY CES IISC, INDIA UNIV PAPUA, INDONESIA UNIV ADNAN MENDERES, TURKEY UNIV LOUISIANA, USA CARETTA RESEARCH PROJECT, USA UNIV HAKKARI, TURKEY UNIV MALAYSIA, MALAYSIA UNIV NELSON MANDELA, SOUTH AFRICA UNIV CADIZ, SPAIN TE MANA O TE MOANA FDN, FRANCE MARN, EL SALVADOR FEST, BRAZIL BIOGRAN ANALISES AMBIENTAIS, BRAZIL ECONSERVATION ESTUDOS E PROJETOS AMBIENTAIS, BRAZIL UNIV FED ESPIRITO SANTO, BRAZIL UNIV PURDUE, USA UNIV PAMUKKALE, TURKEY IFREMER, FRANCE SI LA REUNION SE PDG-RBE-DOI IF 11.6 TC 0 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00859/97139/105961.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00859/97139/105962.zip LA English DT Article DE ;adaptive response;climate change;ectotherms;marine turtles;phenology;reproductive output;sea turtles AB Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a “middle of the road” scenario (SSP2‐4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26–43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present‐day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from −20 to −191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming. PY 2023 PD OCT SO Global Change Biology SN 1354-1013 PU Wiley DI 10.1111/gcb.16991 ID 97139 ER EF