Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

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Frieler Katja, Volkholz Jan, Lange Stefan, Schewe Jacob, Mengel Matthias, Lopez Maria del Rocio Rivas, Otto Christian, Reyer Christopher P. O., Karger Dirk Nikolaus, Malle Johanna T., Treu Simon, Menz Christoph, Blanchard Julia L., Harrison Cheryl S., Petrik Colleen M., Eddy Tyler D., Ortega-Cisneros Kelly, Novaglio Camilla, Rousseau Yannick, Watson Reg A., Stock Charles, Liu Xiao, Heneghan Ryan, Tittensor Derek, Maury Olivier, Buechner Matthias, Vogt Thomas, Wang Tingting, Sun Fubao, Sauer Inga J., Koch Johannes, Vanderkelen Inne, Jaegermeyr Jonas, Mueller Christoph, Rabin Sam, Klar Jochen, Del Valle Iliusi D. Vega, Lasslop Gitta, Chadburn Sarah, Burke Eleanor, Gallego-Sala Angela, Smith Noah, Chang Jinfeng, Hantson Stijn, Burton Chantelle, Gaedeke Anne, Li Fang, Gosling Simon N., Schmied Hannes Mueller, Hattermann Fred, Wang Jida, Yao Fangfang, Hickler Thomas, Marce Rafael, Pierson Don, Thiery Wim, Mercado-Bettin Daniel, Ladwig Robert, Ayala-Zamora Ana Isabel, Forrest Matthew, Bechtold Michel (2024). Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Geoscientific Model Development. 17 (1). 1-51. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00900/101163/

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