Combining sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to evaluate the impact of management measures with ISIS-Fish: marine protected areas for the Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) fishery

Type Article
Date 2010-07
Language English
Author(s) Lehuta SigridORCID1, Mahevas Stephanie1, Petitgas Pierre1, Pelletier DominiqueORCID2
Affiliation(s) 1 : IFREMER, F-44311 Nantes 03, France.
2 : IFREMER, Technopole Brest Iroise, F-29280 Plouzane, France.
Source Ices Journal Of Marine Science (1054-3139) (Oxford Univ Press), 2010-07 , Vol. 67 , N. 5 , P. 1063-1075
DOI 10.1093/icesjms/fsq002
WOS© Times Cited 26
Note EU project UNCOVER (FP6, contract 022717)
Keyword(s) Bay of Biscay anchovy, marine protected area, sensitivity analysis, simulation, uncertainty analysis
Abstract Spatio-seasonal explicit simulation models can predict the impact of spatial management measures on marine fish populations and fishing activities. As fisheries are complex systems, fisheries simulation models are often complex, with many uncertain parameters. Here, the methodology is provided to deliver fishery diagnostics within an uncertainty context using a complex simulation tool. A sensitivity analysis of the model is performed on model outputs using partial least-squares to identify the most sensitive parameters. The impact of several management measures is then simulated using a statistical simulation design taking into account the uncertainty of the selected sensitive parameters. This approach was applied to the Bay of Biscay anchovy stock using the ISIS-Fish (Integration of Spatial Information for Simulation of Fisheries) model to assess the impact of imposing marine protected areas (MPAs) conditionally on parameter uncertainty. The diagnostic appeared to be highly sensitive to the mortality of larvae and juveniles, growth, and reproduction. The uncertainty of the values of these parameters did not permit any of the simulated MPA designs to be proposed. However, according to anchovy catch and biomass, the simulations allowed the low impact of closure duration to be shown and underscored the utility of protecting such key processes as spawning.
Full Text
File Pages Size Access
13 299 KB Access on demand
Author's final draft 22 214 KB Open access
Top of the page

How to cite 

Lehuta Sigrid, Mahevas Stephanie, Petitgas Pierre, Pelletier Dominique (2010). Combining sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to evaluate the impact of management measures with ISIS-Fish: marine protected areas for the Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) fishery. Ices Journal Of Marine Science, 67(5), 1063-1075. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq002 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00011/12234/