Precession phasing offset between Indian summer monsoon and Arabian Sea productivity linked to changes in Atlantic overturning circulation
Results from transient climate modeling experiments indicate an in-phase relationship between insolation forcing and Indian summer monsoonal precipitation. This is in contrast to high-resolution radioisotopically dated speleothem oxygen isotope (delta O-18) records of China, which showed that East Asian Monsoon maxima lag Northern Hemisphere peak summer insolation by similar to 2,700 years, while an approximately 8,000-year time lag was derived from late Pleistocene records of Arabian Sea sediments. Here, we evaluate the precession phase of the Arabian Sea signal by comparing a new high-resolution productivity and oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) intensity record from the Arabian Sea over the past 450,000 years with the results of a transient climate modeling experiment that includes glacial-bound ice volume variations. The well established tuning technique between radioisotopically dated North Atlantic cold events and the occurrence of deep-dwelling planktonic foraminifera in the Arabian Sea for the last glacial cycle was used to extend the Arabian Sea chronology, independent of orbital tuning. Cross-spectral analysis over the last 224,000 years reveals that Arabian Sea productivity maxima lag precession minima by similar to 6,900 +/- 200 years, i.e., in close agreement with previous reconstructions. Also our climate modeling simulations are in accord with previous studies indicating an in-phase relationship between precession minima and maximum summer monsoon intensity. We argue that the summer monsoon is most likely not the main driver of changes in Arabian Sea biological productivity and OMZ intensity at the precession frequency band, but that changes in the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have played the prominent role in controlling the nutrient delivery into the euphotic layer of the northern Indian Ocean, and hence the amount of primary productivity and intensity of the oxygen minimum zone in the Arabian Sea. Such a mechanism explains the large precession-related time lag between minimum precession and maximum productivity and OMZ conditions in the Arabian Sea, since intensified AMOC occurred during precession maxima.