Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles

Type Article
Date 2015-11
Language English
Author(s) Fulton Elizabeth A.1, 3, Bax Nicholas J.1, 4, Bustamante Rodrigo H.5, Dambacher Jeffrey M.2, 3, Dichmont Catherine5, Dunstan Piers K.1, Hayes Keith R.2, Hobday Alistair J.1, 3, Pitcher Roland5, Plaganyi Eva E.5, Punt Andre E.1, 6, Savina-Rolland MarieORCID7, Smith Anthony D. M.1, 3, Smith David C.1, 3
Affiliation(s) 1 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.
2 : CSIRO Digital Prod, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.
3 : Univ Tasmania, Ctr Marine Socioecol, Battery Point, Tas 7004, Australia.
4 : Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Battery Point, Tas 7004, Australia.
5 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia.
6 : Univ Washington, Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.
7 : Ctr Manche Mer Nord, Lab Ressources Halieut, F-62321 Boulogne Sur Mer, France.
Source Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B-biological Sciences (0962-8436) (Royal Soc), 2015-11 , Vol. 370 , N. 1681 , P. 1-17
DOI 10.1098/rstb.2014.0278
WOS© Times Cited 68
Keyword(s) spatial management, modelling, MPA, counterfactual
Abstract Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with 'no-action' counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human-ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential 'surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.
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Fulton Elizabeth A., Bax Nicholas J., Bustamante Rodrigo H., Dambacher Jeffrey M., Dichmont Catherine, Dunstan Piers K., Hayes Keith R., Hobday Alistair J., Pitcher Roland, Plaganyi Eva E., Punt Andre E., Savina-Rolland Marie, Smith Anthony D. M., Smith David C. (2015). Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B-biological Sciences, 370(1681), 1-17. Publisher's official version : , Open Access version :