|Author(s)||Saenz-Romero Cuauhtemoc1, 2, Lamy Jean-Baptiste3, Ducousso Alexis1, Musch Brigitte4, Ehrenmann Francois, Delzon Sylvain1, Cavers Stephen5, Chalupka Wladyslaw6, Dagdas Said7, Hansen Jon Kehlet8, Lee Steve J.9, Liesebach Mirko10, Rau Hans-Martin11, Psomas Achilleas12, Schneck Volker13, Steiner Wilfried11, Zimmermann Niklaus E.12, Kremer Antoine1|
|Affiliation(s)||1 : Univ Bordeaux, INRA, Unit Mixte Rech Biodiv Genes & Commun, UMR 1202 BIOGECO, 69 Route Arcachon, F-33610 Cestas, France.
2 : Univ Michoacana, Inst Invest Agropecuarias & Forest, Av San Juanito Itzicuaro S-N,Col. Nueva Esperanza, F-58337 Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico.
3 : IFREMER, LGPMM, SG2M, F-17390 La Tremblade, France.
4 : Conserv Genet Arbres Forest Off Natl Forets, 2163 Ave Pomme Pin, F-45075 Orleans, France.
5 : Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland.
6 : Polish Acad Sci, Inst Dendrol, Parkowa 5, PL-62035 Kornik, Poland.
7 : Minist Forestry & Water Affairs, Silviculture Dept Gen Directorate Forestry, Forest Tending Div, Sogutozu Caddesi, TR-06560 Ankara, Turkey.
8 : Univ Copenhagen, Fac Sci, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
9 : Northern Res Stn, Forest Res, Roslin EH25 9SY, Midlothian, Scotland.
10 : Thunen Inst Forstgenet, Sieker Landstra 2, D-22927 Grosshansdorf, Germany.
11 : Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt, Abt Waldgenressourcen, Prof Oelkers Str 6, D-34346 Munden, Germany.
12 : Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Zuurcherstr 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
13 : Thunen Inst Forstgenet, Eberswalder Chaussee 3A, D-15377 Waldsieversdorf, Germany.
|Source||Global Change Biology (1354-1013) (Wiley), 2017-07 , Vol. 23 , N. 7 , P. 2831-2847|
|WOS© Times Cited||31|
|Keyword(s)||climatic change, climatic transfer distance, mixed model, Quercus petraea, survival, tree growth|
|Abstract||How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150,000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (1) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection versus plastic responses to ongoing climate change), (2) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. Whilst, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, whilst the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other non-marginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.|
Saenz-Romero Cuauhtemoc, Lamy Jean-Baptiste, Ducousso Alexis, Musch Brigitte, Ehrenmann Francois, Delzon Sylvain, Cavers Stephen, Chalupka Wladyslaw, Dagdas Said, Hansen Jon Kehlet, Lee Steve J., Liesebach Mirko, Rau Hans-Martin, Psomas Achilleas, Schneck Volker, Steiner Wilfried, Zimmermann Niklaus E., Kremer Antoine (2017). Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe. Global Change Biology, 23(7), 2831-2847. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13576 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00358/46967/