A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Type Article
Date 2018-04
Language English
Author(s) Tittensor Derek P.1, 2, Eddy Tyler D.2, 3, Lotze Heike K.2, Galbraith Eric D.4, 5, 6, Cheung William3, Barange Manuel7, 8, Blanchard Julia L.9, 10, Bopp Laurent11, Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea2, Buechner Matthias12, Bulman Catherine13, Carozza David A.14, Christensen Villy15, Coll Marta16, 17, Dunne John P.18, Fernandes Jose A.8, 19, Fulton Elizabeth A.13, 20, Hobday Alistair J.13, 20, Huber Veronika12, Jennings Simon21, 22, 23, Jones Miranda3, Lehodey Patrick24, Link Jason S.25, Mackinson Steve21, Maury Olivier26, 27, Niiranen Susa28, Oliveros-Ramos Ricardo29, Roy Tilla11, 30, Schewe Jacob12, Shin Yunne-Jai26, 31, Silva Tiago21, Stock Charles A.18, Steenbeek Jeroen32, Underwood Philip J.1, Volkholz Jan12, Watson James R.33, Walker Nicola D.21
Affiliation(s) 1 : UN Environm Programme World Conservat Monitoring, 219 Huntingdon Rd, Cambridge CB3 0DL, England.
2 : Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Life Sci Ctr, 1355 Oxford St, Halifax B3H 4R2, NS, Canada.
3 : Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Nippon Fdn Nereus Program, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
4 : ICREA, Barcelona 08010, Spain.
5 : Univ Autonoma Barcelona, ICTA, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain.
6 : Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Math, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain.
7 : Food & Agr Org United Nations FAO, Fisheries & Aquaculture Policy & Resources Div, I-00153 Rome, Italy.
8 : Plymouth Marine Lab, Prospect Pl, Plymouth PL13 DH, Devon, England.
9 : Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tas 7004, Australia.
10 : Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.
11 : CE Saclay, CNRS CEA UVSQ, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environnem, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
12 : Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Telegrafenberg A56, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
13 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.
14 : McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, 3450 Univ St, Montreal, PQ H3A 0E8, Canada.
15 : Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
16 : Institute Marine Sci ICM CSIC, Passeig Maritim Barceloneta 37-49, Barcelona 08003, Spain.
17 : Univ Cape Town, UMR MARBEC & LMI ICEMASA, Inst Rech Dev, Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Cape Town, South Africa.
18 : NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA.
19 : AZTI, Portualdea Z-G, Pasaia 20110, Gipuzkoa, Spain.
20 : Univ Tasmania, Ctr Marine Socioecol, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tas 7004, Australia.
21 : Cefas, Lowestoft Lab, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England.
22 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
23 : Int Council Explorat Sea, HC Andersens Blvd 44-46, DK-1553 Copenhagen V, Denmark.
24 : CLS, 11 Rue Hermes 31520, Ramonville St Agne, France.
25 : NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, 166 Water St, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA.
26 : Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD,UMR 248 MARBEC,IRD, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, F-34203 Sete, France.
27 : Univ Cape Town, ICEMASA, Int Lab, Dept Oceanog, Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Cape Town, South Africa.
28 : Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Kraftriket 2B, S-11419 Stockholm, Sweden.
29 : Inst Mar Peru IMARPE, Gamarra & Gen Valle S-N, Chucuito, Callao, Peru.
30 : ECOCEANA Ecosyst Climate & Ocean Anal, 57 Rue Archereau, F-75019 Paris, France.
31 : Univ Cape Town, Marine Res MA RE Inst, Dept Biol Sci, Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa.
32 : EII, Barcelona 08193, Spain.
33 : Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97330 USA.
Source Geoscientific Model Development (1991-959X) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2018-04 , Vol. 11 , N. 4 , P. 1421-1442
DOI 10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018
WOS© Times Cited 103
Abstract

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

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Tittensor Derek P., Eddy Tyler D., Lotze Heike K., Galbraith Eric D., Cheung William, Barange Manuel, Blanchard Julia L., Bopp Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea, Buechner Matthias, Bulman Catherine, Carozza David A., Christensen Villy, Coll Marta, Dunne John P., Fernandes Jose A., Fulton Elizabeth A., Hobday Alistair J., Huber Veronika, Jennings Simon, Jones Miranda, Lehodey Patrick, Link Jason S., Mackinson Steve, Maury Olivier, Niiranen Susa, Oliveros-Ramos Ricardo, Roy Tilla, Schewe Jacob, Shin Yunne-Jai, Silva Tiago, Stock Charles A., Steenbeek Jeroen, Underwood Philip J., Volkholz Jan, Watson James R., Walker Nicola D. (2018). A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(4), 1421-1442. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00438/54988/