Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries
|Author(s)||Thiault Lauric1, Mora Camilo2, Cinner Joshua E.3, Cheung William W. L.4, Graham Nicholas A. J.5, Januchowski-Hartley Fraser A.6, Mouillot David3, 6, Sumaila U. Rashid7, Claudet Joachim1|
|Affiliation(s)||1 : National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France.
2 : Department of Geography, University of Hawai’i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai’i 96822, USA.
3 : Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Queensland, Australia.
4 : Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada.
5 : Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK.
6 : UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-UM-IFREMER, Université de Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier Cedex, France.
7 : Fisheries Economics Research Unit, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada.
|Source||Science Advances (2375-2548) (American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)), 2019-11 , Vol. 5 , N. 11 , P. eaaw9976 (10p.)|
|WOS© Times Cited||27|
Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a “business-as-usual” emission scenario, ~90% of the world’s population—most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries—are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries—including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers—would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies’ vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.