Climate‐induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold‐water corals and commercially important deep‐sea fishes in the North Atlantic

Type Article
Date 2020-04
Language English
Author(s) Morato Telmo1, 2, González‐irusta José‐manuel1, 2, Dominguez‐carrió Carlos1, 2, Wei Chih‐lin3, Davies Andrew4, Sweetman Andrew K.5, Taranto Gerald H.1, 2, Beazley Lindsay6, García‐alegre Ana7, Grehan Anthony8, Laffargue PascalORCID9, Murillo Francisco Javier6, Sacau Mar7, Vaz SandrineORCID10, Kenchington Ellen6, Arnaud-Haond SophieORCID10, Callery Oisín8, Chimienti Giovanni11, 12, Cordes Erik13, Egilsdottir Hronn14, Freiwald André15, Gasbarro Ryan13, Gutiérrez‐zárate Cristina1, 2, Gianni Matthew16, Gilkinson Kent17, Wareham Hayes Vonda E.17, Hebbeln Dierk18, Hedges Kevin19, Henry Lea‐anne20, Johnson David21, Koen‐alonso Mariano17, Lirette Cam6, Mastrototaro Francesco11, 12, Menot LenaickORCID22, Molodtsova Tina23, Durán Muñoz Pablo7, Orejas Covadonga24, Pennino Maria Grazia7, Puerta Patricia24, Ragnarsson Stefán Á.14, Ramiro‐sánchez Berta20, Rice Jake25, Rivera Jesús26, Roberts J. Murray20, Ross Steve W.27, Rueda José L.28, Sampaio Íris2, 15, Snelgrove Paul29, Stirling David30, Treble Margaret A.19, Urra Javier28, Vad Johanne20, Oevelen Dick31, Watling Les32, Walkusz Wojciech19, Wienberg Claudia18, Woillez MathieuORCID22, Levin Lisa A.33, Carreiro‐silva Marina1, 2
Affiliation(s) 1 : Okeanos Research Centre Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca Universidade dos Açores Horta ,Portugal
2 : IMAR Instituto do Mar Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca Universidade dos Açores Horta ,Portugal
3 : Institute of Oceanography National Taiwan University Taipei ,Taiwan
4 : Department of Biological Sciences University of Rhode Island Kingston RI, USA
5 : Marine Benthic Ecology, Biogeochemistry and In situ Technology Research Group The Lyell Centre for Earth and Marine Science and Technology Heriot‐Watt University Edinburgh, UK
6 : Fisheries and Oceans Canada Bedford Institute of Oceanography Dartmouth NS ,Canada
7 : Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO) Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo Vigo, Pontevedra ,Spain
8 : Earth and Ocean Sciences NUI Galway Galway, Ireland
9 : IFREMER, Centre Atlantique Nantes ,France
10 : MARBEC University of Montpellier IFREMER CNRS IRD Sète ,France
11 : Department of Biology University of Bari Aldo Moro Bari, Italy
12 : CoNISMa Rome, Italy
13 : Department of Biology Temple University Philadelphia PA ,USA
14 : Marine and Freshwater Research Institute Reykjavík ,Iceland
15 : Marine Research Department Senckenberg am Meer Wilhelmshaven ,Germany
16 : Gianni Consultancy Amsterdam ,The Netherlands
17 : Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre Fisheries and Ocean Canada St. John’s NL, Canada
18 : MARUM ‐ Center for Marine Environmental Sciences University of Bremen Bremen, Germany
19 : Fisheries and Oceans Canada Winnipeg MB ,Canada
20 : Changing Oceans Group School of GeoSciences Grant Institute University of Edinburgh Edinburgh ,UK
21 : Seascape Consultants Ltd Romsey ,UK
22 : IFREMER Centre de Bretagne Plouzané ,France
23 : P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow ,Russia
24 : Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares Palma ,Spain
25 : Fisheries and Ocean Canada Ottawa ON, Canada
26 : Instituto Español de Oceanografía Madrid ,Spain
27 : Center for Marine Science University of North Carolina at Wilmington Wilmington NC, USA
28 : Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga Málaga, Spain
29 : Ocean Sciences Centre Memorial University St. John’s NL ,Canada
30 : Marine Laboratory Marine Scotland Science Aberdeen ,UK
31 : Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) Utrecht University Yerseke ,The Netherlands
32 : Department of Biology University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Honolulu HI, USA
33 : Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation and Integrative Oceanography Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography UC San Diego La Jolla CA ,USA
Source Global Change Biology (1354-1013) (Wiley), 2020-04 , Vol. 26 , N. 4 , P. 2181-2202
DOI 10.1111/gcb.14996
WOS© Times Cited 5
Keyword(s) climate change, cold-water corals, deep-sea, fisheries, fishes, habitat suitability modelling, octocorals, scleractinians, species distribution models, vulnerable marine ecosystems
Abstract

The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep‐sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep‐sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold‐water coral and commercially important deep‐sea fish species under present‐day (1951–2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081–2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%–100% in suitable habitat for cold‐water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep‐sea fishes of 2.0°–9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%–30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%–42% of present‐day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%–14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep‐sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area‐based planning and management tools.

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Morato Telmo, González‐irusta José‐manuel, Dominguez‐carrió Carlos, Wei Chih‐lin, Davies Andrew, Sweetman Andrew K., Taranto Gerald H., Beazley Lindsay, García‐alegre Ana, Grehan Anthony, Laffargue Pascal, Murillo Francisco Javier, Sacau Mar, Vaz Sandrine, Kenchington Ellen, Arnaud-Haond Sophie, Callery Oisín, Chimienti Giovanni, Cordes Erik, Egilsdottir Hronn, Freiwald André, Gasbarro Ryan, Gutiérrez‐zárate Cristina, Gianni Matthew, Gilkinson Kent, Wareham Hayes Vonda E., Hebbeln Dierk, Hedges Kevin, Henry Lea‐anne, Johnson David, Koen‐alonso Mariano, Lirette Cam, Mastrototaro Francesco, Menot Lenaick, Molodtsova Tina, Durán Muñoz Pablo, Orejas Covadonga, Pennino Maria Grazia, Puerta Patricia, Ragnarsson Stefán Á., Ramiro‐sánchez Berta, Rice Jake, Rivera Jesús, Roberts J. Murray, Ross Steve W., Rueda José L., Sampaio Íris, Snelgrove Paul, Stirling David, Treble Margaret A., Urra Javier, Vad Johanne, Oevelen Dick, Watling Les, Walkusz Wojciech, Wienberg Claudia, Woillez Mathieu, Levin Lisa A., Carreiro‐silva Marina (2020). Climate‐induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold‐water corals and commercially important deep‐sea fishes in the North Atlantic. Global Change Biology, 26(4), 2181-2202. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14996 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00610/72211/