Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas
|Author(s)||Andrello Marco1, 2, 3, Mouillot David4, 5, Somot Samuel6, Thuiller Wilfried2, 3, Manel Stephanie1, 7|
|Affiliation(s)||1 : Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, LPED UMR 151, Marseille, France.
2 : Univ Grenoble Alpes, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France.
3 : CNRS, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France.
4 : Univ Montpellier 2, UMR Ecol Syst Marins Cotiers 5119, F-34095 Montpellier 5, France.
5 : James Cook Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.
6 : Meteo France, CNRM, GAME, F-31057 Toulouse, France.
7 : Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France.
|Source||Diversity And Distributions (1366-9516) (Wiley), 2015-02 , Vol. 21 , N. 2 , P. 139-150|
|WOS© Times Cited||52|
|Keyword(s)||Biophysical model, conservation planning, Epinephelus marginatus, larval dispersal, larval growth rate, reproductive timing|
AimTo study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas (MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf. LocationThe Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside. MethodsUsing an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. ResultsWe show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. Main conclusionsClimate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics.