Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas

Type Article
Date 2015-02
Language English
Author(s) Andrello Marco1, 2, 3, Mouillot David4, 5, Somot SamuelORCID6, Thuiller WilfriedORCID2, 3, Manel Stephanie1, 7
Affiliation(s) 1 : Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, LPED UMR 151, Marseille, France.
2 : Univ Grenoble Alpes, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France.
3 : CNRS, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France.
4 : Univ Montpellier 2, UMR Ecol Syst Marins Cotiers 5119, F-34095 Montpellier 5, France.
5 : James Cook Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.
6 : Meteo France, CNRM, GAME, F-31057 Toulouse, France.
7 : Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France.
Source Diversity And Distributions (1366-9516) (Wiley), 2015-02 , Vol. 21 , N. 2 , P. 139-150
DOI 10.1111/ddi.12250
WOS© Times Cited 52
Keyword(s) Biophysical model, conservation planning, Epinephelus marginatus, larval dispersal, larval growth rate, reproductive timing
Abstract

AimTo study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas (MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf. LocationThe Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside. MethodsUsing an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. ResultsWe show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. Main conclusionsClimate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics.

Full Text
File Pages Size Access
Publisher's official version 12 1 MB Open access
Appendix S1 Supplementary methods. 5 161 KB Open access
Appendix S2 Supplementary discussion. 3 127 KB Open access
Figure S1 Regression of connectivity variables on time in the ‘combined’ scenario with diel vertical migration: (a) dispersal distance; (b) connectance; (c) seeded area; and (d) retention. Solid lines 850 KB Open access
Figure S2 Regression of connectivity variables on time in the ‘combined’ scenario with increased larval settlement length: (a) dispersal distance; (b) connectance; (c) seeded area; and (d) retention. 855 KB Open access
Figure S3 Number of MPAs with no reproductive events per year in the ‘spawning’ and ‘combined’ scenarios. 1 MB Open access
Table S1 Fitted linear models for the four connectivity variables for the larval migration sensitivity analysis Table S2 Fitted linear models for the four connectivity variables for the settlement le 1 74 KB Open access
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How to cite 

Andrello Marco, Mouillot David, Somot Samuel, Thuiller Wilfried, Manel Stephanie (2015). Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas. Diversity And Distributions, 21(2), 139-150. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12250 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00627/73867/