El Niño as a predictor of round sardinella distribution along the northwest African coast

Type Article
Date 2020-07
Language English
Author(s) López-Parages Jorge1, 4, 6, Auger Pierre-Amaël3, 4, Rodríguez-Fonseca Belén1, Keenlyside Noel5, Gaetan Carlo2, Rubino Angelo2, Arisido Maeregu W.2, Brochier Timothée7
Affiliation(s) 1 : Dpto de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, UCM-IGEO, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain
2 : Dpto di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Ca Foscari University of Venice, Italy
3 : Instituto Milenio de Oceanografía and Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
4 : Laboratoire d’Ocanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM, Brest Universit, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, Brest, France
5 : Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Univ. of Bergen, Norway
6 : CERFACS/CNRS, Climate Modelling and Global Change Team, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France
7 : Institut de Recherche pour le Dveloppement (IRD), UMMISCO, Sorbonne Universit, Univertis Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
Source Progress In Oceanography (0079-6611) (Elsevier BV), 2020-07 , Vol. 186 , P. 102341 (11p.)
DOI 10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102341
WOS© Times Cited 5
Keyword(s) El Nino, Sardinella aurita, Coastal upwelling, Dynamical oceanography, Atmospheric sciences

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) produces global marine environment conditions that can cause changes in abundance and distribution of distant fish populations worldwide. Understanding mechanisms acting locally on fish population dynamics is crucial to develop forecast skill useful for fisheries management. The present work addresses the role played by ENSO on the round sardinella population biomass and distribution in the central-southern portion of the Canary Current Upwelling System (CCUS). A combined physical-biogeochemical framework is used to understand the climate influence on the hydrodynamical conditions in the study area. Then, an evolutionary individual-based model is used to simulate the round sardinella spatio-temporal biomass variability. According to model experiments, anomalous oceanographic conditions forced by El Niño along the African coast cause anomalies in the latitudinal migration pattern of the species. A robust anomalous increase and decrease of the simulated round sardinella biomass is identified in winter off the Cape Blanc and the Saharan coast region, respectively, in response to El Niño variations. The resultant anomalous pattern is an alteration of the normal migration between the Saharan and the Mauritanian waters. It is primarily explained by the modulating role that El Niño exerts on the currents off Cape Blanc, modifying therefore the normal migration of round sardinella in the search of acceptable temperature conditions. This climate signature can be potentially predicted up to six months in advance based on El Niño conditions in the Pacific.

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López-Parages Jorge, Auger Pierre-Amaël, Rodríguez-Fonseca Belén, Keenlyside Noel, Gaetan Carlo, Rubino Angelo, Arisido Maeregu W., Brochier Timothée (2020). El Niño as a predictor of round sardinella distribution along the northwest African coast. Progress In Oceanography, 186, 102341 (11p.). Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102341 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00630/74211/