Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

Type Article
Date 2021-06
Language English
Author(s) Barthe ChristelleORCID1, 2, Bousquet OlivierORCID1, 3, Bielli SolineORCID1, Tulet PierreORCID1, 2, Pianezze JorisORCID1, Claeys Marine1, 4, Tsai Chia-LunORCID1, 5, Thompson CallumORCID1, Bonnardot FrançoisORCID6, Chauvin FabriceORCID4, Cattiaux JulienORCID4, Bouin Marie-NoëlleORCID4, 7, Amelie Vincent8, Barruol GuilhemORCID9, Calmer Radiance1, 10, Ciccione StéphaneORCID11, Cordier EmmanuelORCID12, Duong Quoc-PhiORCID1, Durand Jonathan1, Fleischer-Dogley Frauke13, Husson Romain14, Lees Edouard1, Malardel SylvieORCID1, Marquestaut Nicolas1, 12, Mavume AlbertoORCID15, Mékiès Dominique1, Mouche AlexisORCID7, Ravoson Navalona Manitriniana16, Razafindradina Bruno17, Rindraharisaona ElisaORCID9, 18, Roberts GregoryORCID4, 19, Singh Manvendra20, Zakariasy Lova17, Zucule Jonas21
Affiliation(s) 1 : Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, France
2 : Laboratoire d’Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, UT3, CNRS, IRD, 31400 Toulouse, France
3 : Institute for Coastal Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Port-Elizabeth 6031, South Africa
4 : CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, France
5 : Center for Atmospheric REmote Sensing (CARE), Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea
6 : Direction Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l’Océan Indien, 97400 Saint-Denis, France
7 : Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, Université de Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, IUEM, 29280 Plouzané, France
8 : Seychelles Meteorological Authority, Mahé 670311, Seychelles
9 : Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université de Paris, CNRS, 75005 Paris, France
10 : National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80304, USA
11 : Kelonia, Observatoire des Tortues Marines de La Réunion, 97436 Saint-Leu, France
12 : Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers de La Réunion (UAR 3365 OSU-R), 97400 Saint-Denis, France
13 : Seychelles Islands Foundation, Mahé 670311, Seychelles
14 : Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), 29280 Brest, France
15 : Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo CP 257, Mozambique
16 : Institut et Observatoire de Géophysique d’Antisiranana, Université d’Antisiranana, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar
17 : Institut Supérieur de Technologie d’Antisiranana, Antsiranana 201, Madagascar
18 : Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion (LGSR), Université de La Réunion, 97400 Saint-Denis, France
19 : Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
20 : Mauritius Oceanography Institute, Albion 95410, Mauritius
21 : Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INAM), Maputo CP 256, Mozambique
Source Atmosphere (2073-4433) (MDPI AG), 2021-06 , Vol. 12 , N. 6 , P. 689 (29p.)
DOI 10.3390/atmos12060689
WOS© Times Cited 1
Note This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Keyword(s) tropical cyclone, south-west Indian ocean, cloud-resolving model, ocean-wave-atmosphere coupling, climate modeling
Abstract

The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term.

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Barthe Christelle, Bousquet Olivier, Bielli Soline, Tulet Pierre, Pianezze Joris, Claeys Marine, Tsai Chia-Lun, Thompson Callum, Bonnardot François, Chauvin Fabrice, Cattiaux Julien, Bouin Marie-Noëlle, Amelie Vincent, Barruol Guilhem, Calmer Radiance, Ciccione Stéphane, Cordier Emmanuel, Duong Quoc-Phi, Durand Jonathan, Fleischer-Dogley Frauke, Husson Romain, Lees Edouard, Malardel Sylvie, Marquestaut Nicolas, Mavume Alberto, Mékiès Dominique, Mouche Alexis, Ravoson Navalona Manitriniana, Razafindradina Bruno, Rindraharisaona Elisa, Roberts Gregory, Singh Manvendra, Zakariasy Lova, Zucule Jonas (2021). Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE. Atmosphere, 12(6), 689 (29p.). Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060689 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00696/80848/