Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Type Article
Date 2021-04
Language English
Author(s) Behrens Jörn1, Løvholt Finn2, Jalayer Fatemeh3, Lorito Stefano4, Salgado-Gálvez Mario A.5, 6, Sørensen Mathilde7, Abadie Stephane8, Aguirre-Ayerbe Ignacio9, Aniel-Quiroga Iñigo9, Babeyko Andrey10, Baiguera Marco11, Basili Roberto4, Belliazzi Stefano3, Grezio Anita12, Johnson Kendra13, Murphy ShaneORCID14, Paris Raphaël15, Rafliana Irina16, 17, de Risi Raffaele18, Rossetto Tiziana11, Selva Jacopo12, Taroni Matteo4, Del Zoppo Marta3, Armigliato Alberto19, Bureš Vladimír20, Cech Pavel20, Cecioni Claudia21, Christodoulides Paul22, Davies Gareth23, Dias Frédéric24, Bayraktar Hafize Başak3, González Mauricio9, Gritsevich Maria25, 26, 27, Guillas Serge11, Harbitz Carl Bonnevie2, Kânoǧlu Utku28, Macías Jorge29, Papadopoulos Gerassimos A.30, Polet Jascha31, Romano Fabrizio4, Salamon Amos32, Scala Antonio3, Stepinac Mislav33, Tappin David R.11, 34, Thio Hong Kie35, Tonini Roberto4, Triantafyllou Ioanna36, Ulrich Thomas37, Varini Elisa38, Volpe Manuela4, Vyhmeister Eduardo39
Affiliation(s) 1 : Department of Mathematics/CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
2 : NGI - Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway
3 : University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy
4 : Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
5 : ERN Internacional, Mexico City, Mexico
6 : Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain
7 : University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
8 : Universite de Pau et des Pays de L’Adour, E2S UPPA, SIAME, France
9 : IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de La Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
10 : Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Potsdam, Germany
11 : University College London, London, United Kingdom
12 : Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
13 : GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy
14 : Ifremer, Plouzané, France
15 : Laboratoire Magmas and Volcans, Aubière, France
16 : German Development Institute/Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Germany
17 : Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Jakarta, Indonesia
18 : University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
19 : Alma Mater Studiorum - University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
20 : University of Hradec Kralove, Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic
21 : Università Degli Studi Roma Tre, Rome, Italy
22 : Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus
23 : Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia
24 : University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
25 : Finnish Geospatial Research Institute (FGI), Masala, Finland
26 : Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
27 : Institute of Physics and Technology, Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation
28 : Department of Engineering Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
29 : Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, Spain
30 : International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Athens, Greece
31 : Cal Poly Pomona, Pomona, CA, United States
32 : Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel
33 : University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
34 : British Geological Survey, Nottingham, United Kingdom
35 : AECOM, Los Angeles, CA, United States
36 : Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
37 : Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
38 : C.N.R. - Institute for Applied Mathematics and Information Technologies, Milano, Italy
39 : Insight Research Centre, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
Source Frontiers In Earth Science (2296-6463) (Frontiers Media SA), 2021-04 , Vol. 9 , P. 628772 (28p.)
DOI 10.3389/feart.2021.628772
WOS© Times Cited 10
Keyword(s) tsunami, probabilistic method, hazard, risk, research gap
Abstract

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

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Behrens Jörn, Løvholt Finn, Jalayer Fatemeh, Lorito Stefano, Salgado-Gálvez Mario A., Sørensen Mathilde, Abadie Stephane, Aguirre-Ayerbe Ignacio, Aniel-Quiroga Iñigo, Babeyko Andrey, Baiguera Marco, Basili Roberto, Belliazzi Stefano, Grezio Anita, Johnson Kendra, Murphy Shane, Paris Raphaël, Rafliana Irina, de Risi Raffaele, Rossetto Tiziana, Selva Jacopo, Taroni Matteo, Del Zoppo Marta, Armigliato Alberto, Bureš Vladimír, Cech Pavel, Cecioni Claudia, Christodoulides Paul, Davies Gareth, Dias Frédéric, Bayraktar Hafize Başak, González Mauricio, Gritsevich Maria, Guillas Serge, Harbitz Carl Bonnevie, Kânoǧlu Utku, Macías Jorge, Papadopoulos Gerassimos A., Polet Jascha, Romano Fabrizio, Salamon Amos, Scala Antonio, Stepinac Mislav, Tappin David R., Thio Hong Kie, Tonini Roberto, Triantafyllou Ioanna, Ulrich Thomas, Varini Elisa, Volpe Manuela, Vyhmeister Eduardo (2021). Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps. Frontiers In Earth Science, 9, 628772 (28p.). Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.628772 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00697/80894/