Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
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| Date | 2021-11 | ||||||||||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||||||||||
| Author(s) | Tittensor Derek P. 1, 2, Novaglio Camilla3, 4, Harrison Cheryl S.5, 6, Heneghan Ryan F.7, Barrier Nicolas8, Bianchi Daniele9, Bopp Laurent10, Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea1, Britten Gregory L.11, Büchner Matthias12, Cheung William W. L.13, Christensen Villy13, Coll Marta14, 15, Dunne John P.16, Eddy Tyler D.17, Everett Jason D.18, 19, 20, Fernandes-Salvador Jose A.21, Fulton Elizabeth A.4, 22, Galbraith Eric D.23, Gascuel Didier24, Guiet Jerome9, John Jasmin G.16, Link Jason S.25, Lotze Heike K.1, Maury Olivier8, Ortega-Cisneros Kelly26, Palacios-Abrantes Juliano13, 27, Petrik Colleen M.28, Du Pontavice Hubert24, 29, Rault Jonathan8, Richardson Anthony J.18, 19, Shannon Lynne26, Shin Yunne-Jai8, Steenbeek Jeroen15, Stock Charles A.16, Blanchard Julia L3, 4 |
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| Affiliation(s) | 1 : Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada 2 : United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK 3 : Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia 4 : Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia 5 : School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, USA 6 : Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA 7 : School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia 8 : MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France 9 : Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA 10 : LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France 11 : Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA 12 : Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany 13 : Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada 14 : Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain 15 : Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain 16 : NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA 17 : Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada 18 : School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia 19 : Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia 20 : Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia 21 : AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Sukarrieta (Bizkaia), Spain 22 : Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia 23 : Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 24 : UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France 25 : NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA, USA 26 : Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa 27 : Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA 28 : Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA 29 : Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA |
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| Source | Nature Climate Change (1758-678X) (Springer Science and Business Media LLC), 2021-11 , Vol. 11 , N. 11 , P. 973-981 | ||||||||||||||||
| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9 | ||||||||||||||||
| WOS© Times Cited | 92 | ||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning. |
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