Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Type Article
Date 2021-11
Language English
Author(s) Tittensor Derek P.ORCID1, 2, Novaglio CamillaORCID3, 4, Harrison Cheryl S.ORCID5, 6, Heneghan Ryan F.ORCID7, Barrier NicolasORCID8, Bianchi DanieleORCID9, Bopp LaurentORCID10, Bryndum-Buchholz AndreaORCID1, Britten Gregory L.ORCID11, Büchner MatthiasORCID12, Cheung William W. L.ORCID13, Christensen VillyORCID13, Coll MartaORCID14, 15, Dunne John P.ORCID16, Eddy Tyler D.ORCID17, Everett Jason D.ORCID18, 19, 20, Fernandes-Salvador Jose A.ORCID21, Fulton Elizabeth A.ORCID4, 22, Galbraith Eric D.ORCID23, Gascuel DidierORCID24, Guiet JeromeORCID9, John Jasmin G.ORCID16, Link Jason S.ORCID25, Lotze Heike K.ORCID1, Maury OlivierORCID8, Ortega-Cisneros KellyORCID26, Palacios-Abrantes JulianoORCID13, 27, Petrik Colleen M.ORCID28, Du Pontavice HubertORCID24, 29, Rault Jonathan8, Richardson Anthony J.ORCID18, 19, Shannon LynneORCID26, Shin Yunne-JaiORCID8, Steenbeek JeroenORCID15, Stock Charles A.ORCID16, Blanchard Julia L3, 4
Affiliation(s) 1 : Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
2 : United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
3 : Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
4 : Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
5 : School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, USA
6 : Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
7 : School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
8 : MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
9 : Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
10 : LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
11 : Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
12 : Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
13 : Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
14 : Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
15 : Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
16 : NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
17 : Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
18 : School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
19 : Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
20 : Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
21 : AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Sukarrieta (Bizkaia), Spain
22 : Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
23 : Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
24 : UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
25 : NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA, USA
26 : Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
27 : Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
28 : Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
29 : Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Source Nature Climate Change (1758-678X) (Springer Science and Business Media LLC), 2021-11 , Vol. 11 , N. 11 , P. 973-981
DOI 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
WOS© Times Cited 48

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

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Tittensor Derek P., Novaglio Camilla, Harrison Cheryl S., Heneghan Ryan F., Barrier Nicolas, Bianchi Daniele, Bopp Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea, Britten Gregory L., Büchner Matthias, Cheung William W. L., Christensen Villy, Coll Marta, Dunne John P., Eddy Tyler D., Everett Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador Jose A., Fulton Elizabeth A., Galbraith Eric D., Gascuel Didier, Guiet Jerome, John Jasmin G., Link Jason S., Lotze Heike K., Maury Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes Juliano, Petrik Colleen M., Du Pontavice Hubert, Rault Jonathan, Richardson Anthony J., Shannon Lynne, Shin Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek Jeroen, Stock Charles A., Blanchard Julia L (2021). Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, 11(11), 973-981. Publisher's official version : , Open Access version :