The climatic debt of loggerhead sea turtle populations in a warming world
| Type | Article | ||||||||||||||||
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| Date | 2019-12 | ||||||||||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||||||||||
| Author(s) | Monsinjon Jonathan1, Wyneken Jeanette2, Rusenko Kirt3, Lopez-Mendilaharsu Milagros4, Lara Paulo4, Santos Alexsandro4, Dei Marcovaldi Maria A. G.4, Fuentes Mariana M. P. B.5, Kaska Yakup6, Tucek Jenny7, Nel Ronel7, William Kristina L.8, Leblanc Anne-Marie9, Rostal David9, Guillon Jean-Michel 1, Girondot Marc1 |
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| Affiliation(s) | 1 : Univ Paris Saclay, Univ Paris Sud, Lab Ecol Systemat Evolut, CNRS,AgroParisTech, F-91405 Orsay, France. 2 : Florida Atlantic Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. 3 : Gumbo Limbo Nat Ctr, 1801 N Ocean Blvd, Boca Raton, FL 33432 USA. 4 : Fundacao Pro Tamar, Rua Rubens Guelli,134 Sala 307, Salvador, BA, Brazil. 5 : Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Marine Turtle Res Ecol & Conservat Grp, North Woodward Ave, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA. 6 : Pamukkale Univ, Sea Turtle Res Ctr DEKAMER, Denizli, Turkey. 7 : Nelson Mandela Univ, Dept Zool, ZA-6031 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. 8 : Caretta Res Project, POB 9841, Savannah, GA 31412 USA. 9 : Georgia Southern Univ, Dept Biol, Statesboro, GA 30460 USA. |
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| Source | Ecological Indicators (1470-160X) (Elsevier), 2019-12 , Vol. 107 , P. 105657 (13p.) | ||||||||||||||||
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105657 | ||||||||||||||||
| WOS© Times Cited | 44 | ||||||||||||||||
| Keyword(s) | Climate change, Phenotypic plasticity, Phenology, Hatching success, Sex ratio, Embryonic development, Incubation, Thermal tolerance, Reptile, Caretta caretta | ||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Phenological shifts, by initiating reproductive events earlier, in response to advanced seasonal warming is one of the most striking effects currently observed in wild populations. For sea turtles, phenological adjustment to warming conditions could be the most effective short-term adaptation option against climate change. We calculated future phenological changes required in seven important loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting populations to continue achieving a high hatching success and a sex ratio that lies within current ranges. Considering temperature-mediated phenological changes, we found that most populations (six out of seven) will not be able to keep pace with a warming climate. Under an optimistic climate warming scenario (RCP4.5), these populations will face a climatic debt, that is, a difference between required and expected phenological changes, and warming will substantially reduce hatching success and induce a feminization of hatchlings, which may jeopardize their reproductive sustainability. Our approach offers the possibility to quantify the efficiency of phenological shifts in oviparous reptiles by considering physiological, developmental and phenological processes. |
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