Data-based estimates of interannual sea–air CO2 flux variations 1957–2020 and their relation to environmental drivers

Type Article
Date 2022-05
Language English
Author(s) Rödenbeck ChristianORCID1, Devries Tim2, Hauck JudithORCID3, Le Quéré CorinneORCID4, Keeling RalphORCID5
Affiliation(s) 1 : Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
2 : Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA
3 : Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
4 : School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
5 : Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA
Source Biogeosciences (1726-4170) (Copernicus GmbH), 2022-05 , Vol. 19 , N. 10 , P. 2627-2652
DOI 10.5194/bg-2021-304
WOS© Times Cited 13

This study considers year-to-year and decadal variations as well as secular trends of the sea–air CO2 flux over the 1957–2020 period, as constrained by the pCO2 measurements from the SOCAT data base. In a first step, we relate interannual anomalies in ocean-internal carbon sources and sinks to local interannual anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), the temporal changes of SST (dSST/dt), and squared wind speed (u2), employing a multi-linear regression. In the tropical Pacific, we find interannual variability to be dominated by dSST/dt, as arising from variations in the upwelling of colder and more carbon-rich waters into the mixed layer. In the eastern upwelling zones as well as in circumpolar bands in the high latitudes of both hemispheres, we find sensitivity to wind speed, compatible with the entrainment of carbon-rich water during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layer and wind-driven upwelling. In the Southern Ocean, the secular increase in wind speed leads to a secular increase in the carbon source into the mixed layer, with an estimated reduction of the sink trend in the range 17 to 42 %. In a second step, we combined the result of the multi-linear regression and an explicitly interannual pCO2-based additive correction into a “hybrid” estimate of the sea–air CO2 flux over the period 1957–2020. As a pCO2 mapping method, it combines (a) the ability of a regression to bridge data gaps and extrapolate into the early decades almost void of pCO2 data based on process-related observables and (b) the ability of an autoregressive interpolation to follow signals even if not represented in the chosen set of explanatory variables. The “hybrid” estimate can be applied as ocean flux prior for atmospheric CO2 inversions covering the whole period of atmospheric CO2 data since 1957.

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Rödenbeck Christian, Devries Tim, Hauck Judith, Le Quéré Corinne, Keeling Ralph (2022). Data-based estimates of interannual sea–air CO2 flux variations 1957–2020 and their relation to environmental drivers. Biogeosciences, 19(10), 2627-2652. Publisher's official version : , Open Access version :