Bounded nonlinear forecasts of partially observed geophysical systems with physics-constrained deep learning

The complexity of real-world geophysical systems is often compounded by the fact that the observed measurements depend on hidden variables. These latent variables include unresolved small scales and/or rapidly evolving processes, partially observed couplings, or forcings in coupled systems. This is the case in ocean-atmosphere dynamics, for which unknown interior dynamics can affect surface observations. The identification of computationally-relevant representations of such partially-observed and highly nonlinear systems is thus challenging and often limited to short-term forecast applications. Here, we investigate the physics-constrained learning of implicit dynamical embeddings, leveraging neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) representations. In particular, we restrict the NODE representation to linear-quadratic dynamics and enforce a global boundedness constraint, which promotes the generalization of the learned dynamics to arbitrary initial conditions. The proposed architecture is implemented within a deep learning framework, and its relevance is demonstrated with respect to state-of-the-art schemes for different case studies representative of geophysical dynamics.

Keyword(s)

Partially-observed systems, Embedding, Boundedness, Deep learning, Neural ODE, Forecasting

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Ouala Said, Brunton Steven L., Chapron Bertrand, Pascual Ananda, Collard Fabrice, Gaultier Lucile, Fablet Ronan (2023). Bounded nonlinear forecasts of partially observed geophysical systems with physics-constrained deep learning. Physica D-nonlinear Phenomena. 446. 133630 (19p.). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2022.133630, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00815/92707/

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