Objectives

New Caledonia, a former Zero-COVID country, was confronted with a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak in September 2021. We evaluate the relative contribution of vaccination, lockdown and timing of interventions on healthcare burden.

Methods

We developed an age-stratified mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination calibrated for New Caledonia and evaluated three alternative scenarios.

Results

High virus transmission early on was estimated, R0 equal to 6.6 (95% CI [6.4 – 6.7]). Lockdown reduced R0 by 73% (95% CI [70 - 76%]). Easing the lockdown increased transmission (39% reduction of the initial R0); but we did not observe an epidemic rebound. This contrasts with the rebound in hospital admissions (+116% total hospital admissions) that would have been expected in the absence of an intensified vaccination campaign (76,220 people or 34.12% of the eligible population were first-dose vaccinated during one month of lockdown). A 15-day earlier lockdown would have led to a significant reduction in the magnitude of the epidemic (-53% total hospital admissions).

Conclusions

The success of the response against the Delta variant epidemic in New Caledonia was due to an effective lockdown that provided additional time for people to vaccinate. Earlier lockdown would have greatly mitigated the magnitude of the epidemic.