Copy this text
Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs
Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090–2099 relative to 1995–2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world’s oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world’s oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world’s oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.
Full Text
File | Pages | Size | Access | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Publisher's official version | 23 | 3 Mo | ||
S1 Table. A taxonomy of marine ecosystem models taking part in the Fish-MIP project (modified from (Heneghan et al., 2021; Lotze et al., 2019; Tittensor et al., 2021)). | - | 1 Mo | ||
S2 Table. Conversion between trophic levels-based and size-based bins. | - | 132 Ko | ||
S1 Fig. Spatial patterns of projected total consumer biomass relative changes in percent. | - | 10 Mo | ||
S2 Fig. Main outputs of the earth system models considered in the current study. | - | 2 Mo | ||
S3 Fig. Percentage of surface covered by each total consumer biomass response type, for the seven considered MEMS, under GFDL-SSP5-8.5 modelling. | - | 508 Ko | ||
S4 Fig. (a) Spatial distribution of the total consumer biomass response types, for the nine considered MEMs, forced with IPSL-SSP5-8.5.... | - | 9 Mo | ||
S5 Fig. The percentage of surface covered by each total consumer biomass response type, for the nine considered MEMS, under IPSL-SSP5-8.5 modelling. | - | 583 Ko | ||
S6 Fig. Model agreement on biomass response types projected in the 2090s, under IPSL-SSP5-8.5 configuration. | - | 2 Mo | ||
S7 Fig. Evolution of R ratio (total consumer biomass change divided by NPP change) in regards to SST increase relative to reference period. | - | 1 Mo | ||
S8 Fig. Comparison between change over time in the total consumer production and change in total consumer biomass. | - | 2 Mo | ||
S9 Fig. Ensemble projections of low trophic level drivers change and total consumer biomass changes,.... | - | 1 Mo |