Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems
| Type | Article | ||||||||
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| Date | 2024-03-20 | ||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||
| Author(s) | Rose Kenneth A.1, Holsman Kirstin2, Nye Janet A.3, Markowitz Emily H.2, Banha Thomas N.S.4, Bednaršek Nina5, 6, Bueno-Pardo Juan7, Deslauriers David8, Fulton Elizabeth A.9, Huebert Klaus B.10, Huret Martin 11, Ito Shin-Ichi12, Koenigstein Stefan13, 14, Li Lingbo15, Moustahfid Hassan16, Muhling Barbara A.13, 14, Neubauer Philipp17, Paula José Ricardo18, 19, 20, Siddon Elizabeth C.21, Skogen Morten D.22, Spencer Paul D.2, Van Denderen P. Daniel23, Van Der Meeren Gro I.24, Peck Myron A.25, 26 |
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| Affiliation(s) | 1 : Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, 2020 Horns Point Road, Cambridge, MD 21613, USA 2 : NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA 98115, USA 3 : Earth, Marine and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 3431 Arendell Street, Morehead City, NC 28557, USA 4 : Centro de Biologia Marinha, Universidade de São Paulo, São Sebastião, SP 11612109, Brazil 5 : Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Hatfield Marine Science Center 2030 SE Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR 97365, USA 6 : Jozef Stefan Institute, Department of Environmental Sciences, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia 7 : Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Future Oceans Lab, Lagoas-Marcosende, 36310 Vigo, Spain 8 : Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 310 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, Quebec G5L 3A1, Canada 9 : CSIRO Environment, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 10 : CSS, Inc., 2750 Prosperity Avenue, Fairfax, VA 22031, USA 11 : DECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), IFREMER, INRAE, Institut Agro, Pointe Du Diable, 29280 Plouzané, France 12 : Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8564, Japan 13 : Institute of Marine Sciences/NOAA Fisheries Collaborative Program, University of California Santa Cruz, 156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA 14 : NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA 15 : Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, 1 Challenger Drive, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, Canada 16 : NOAA, US Integrated Ocean Observing System, 1315 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA 17 : Dragonfly Data Science, PO Box 27535, Wellington 6141, New Zealand 18 : MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Av. Nossa Senhora do Cabo, 939, 2750-374 Cascais, Portugal 19 : Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal 20 : 19Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Kāne‘ohe, HI 96744, USA 21 : NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories, 17109 Pt. Lena Loop Road, Juneau, AK 99801, USA 22 : Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870 Nordnes, 5817 Bergen, Norway 23 : Centre for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kemitorvet Building 202, 2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark 24 : Institute of Marine Research, Austevoll Research Station, Sauganeset 16, 5392 Storebø, Norway 25 : Department of Coastal Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, PO Box 59, 1790 Den Burg (Texel), The Netherlands 26 : Marine Animal Ecology Group, Department of Animal Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 HB Wageningen, The Netherlands |
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| Source | Marine Ecology Progress Series (0171-8630) (Inter-Research Science Center), 2024-03-20 , Vol. 732 , P. 193-221 | ||||||||
| DOI | 10.3354/meps14535 | ||||||||
| Keyword(s) | Bioenergetics, Modeling, Climate change, Fish, Projections, Challenges, Agent-based | ||||||||
| Abstract | Climate change has rapidly altered marine ecosystems and is expected to continue to push systems and species beyond historical baselines into novel conditions. Projecting responses of organisms and populations to these novel environmental conditions often requires extrapolations beyond observed conditions, challenging the predictive limits of statistical modeling capabilities. Bioenergetics modeling provides the mechanistic basis for projecting climate change effects on marine living resources in novel conditions, has a long history of development, and has been applied widely to fish and other taxa. We provide our perspective on 4 opportunities that will advance the ability of bioenergetics-based models to depict changes in the productivity and distribution of fishes and other marine organisms, leading to more robust projections of climate impacts. These are (1) improved depiction of bioenergetics processes to derive realistic individual-level response(s) to complex changes in environmental conditions, (2) innovations in scaling individual-level bioenergetics to project responses at the population and food web levels, (3) more realistic coupling between spatial dynamics and bioenergetics to better represent the local- to regional-scale differences in the effects of climate change on the spatial distributions of organisms, and (4) innovations in model validation to ensure that the next generation of bioenergetics-based models can be used with known and sufficient confidence. Our focus on specific opportunities will enable critical advancements in bioenergetics modeling and position the modeling community to make more accurate and robust projections of the effects of climate change on individuals, populations, food webs, and ecosystems. |
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