Unravelling the Rapid Range Expansion in Senegal of the Nigerian Gerbil (Gerbillus Nigeriae) Using a Multifactorial Modelling Approach

At the turn of the last century, Senegal experienced a spectacular invasion of the Nigerian gerbil (Gerbillus nigeriae). In less than 20 years, the species could be spotted in almost all areas of the northern half of the country, where it was previously undetected. In an effort to decipher the modalities of this invasion, we incorporated available information about the environment and gerbils' life traits into a simulation model and attempted to reproduce observations.The model is agent-based. It formalises subpopulations of dispersing gerbil propagules that have the ability to settle in favourable habitats. The general and particular components of the model are described in detail, alongside with the sensitivity analyses conducted to calibrate unknown parameter values pertaining to life traits, environmental drivers, and the origin of the metapopulation.Values obtained for each variation domain are discussed in view of understanding the given invasion process. It is stressed that facets of the explanation are still speculative due to unknowns regarding the invasion's history, the biological characteristics of the invading populations or the imprecision of some environmental data.A unique and comprehensive multifactorial invasion scenario emerges from the study. It involves multiple entries of the invading population in Senegal combined with a set of physical, physiological, and human-related consequences of the 1980s drought. Furthermore, the scenario suggests both a restrictive and a facilitative effect of environmental drivers, as well as phenotypic plasticity of the invasive species directed towards increased dispersal abilities.

Keyword(s)

Agent-based model, climate change, integrated approach, invasion, rodent, West Africa

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Le Fur Jean, Duraffour Françoise, Granjon Laurent (2024). Unravelling the Rapid Range Expansion in Senegal of the Nigerian Gerbil (Gerbillus Nigeriae) Using a Multifactorial Modelling Approach. Preprint. INPRESS. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4730302, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00917/102925/

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