The Southern Ocean (SO) plays a crucial role in the process of sequestering heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and transferring them to the deep ocean. This process is intricately linked to the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), which are pivotal components of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and have a substantial impact on the global climate balance. AAIW and SAMW take shape in specific regions of the Southern Ocean due to the influence of strong winds, buoyancy fluxes, and their effects, such as convection, the development of thick mixed layers, and wind-driven subduction. These water masses subsequently flow northward, contributing to the ventilation of the intermediate layers within the subtropical gyres. In this study, our focus lies on investigating the regional aspects of AAIW and SAMW transformation in CMIP6 models. We accomplish this by analyzing the relationship between the meridional transport of these water masses and air-sea fluxes, particularly Ekman pumping, freshwater fluxes, and heat fluxes. Our findings reveal that the highest transformation rates occur in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, with notable values also observed in the southeast Pacific and south of Africa. Additionally, we assess the potential changes in these formation regions under future scenarios projected for the end of the 21st century. Although the patterns of formation regions remain consistent, there is a significant decrease in the transformation process.

Key Points

Intermediate water masses are relatively accurately spatially transformed in the climate models

Intermediate water masses are primarily transported along the boundaries of the ocean basins

The transformation of water masses decreases in the future climate change scenarios

Plain Language Summary

The ocean plays a fundamental role in the climate system, serving as a vital reservoir for storing and distributing substantial amounts of heat and carbon. Within this context, the Southern Ocean assumes a critical role, as it is the site where significant volumes of water undergo deepening processes, ultimately giving rise to distinct water masses that occupy the intermediate and deep layers of the ocean. This study employs a suite of climate models to delve into the intricacies of the system governing the formation and transformation of specific water masses, namely Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). Our primary objective is to identify the regions within which these water masses originate, comprehend their variability, and assess potential impacts in a future scenario influenced by climate change. Most climate models accurately replicate these formation areas. Moreover, consistent with observations, climate models depict the northward transport of AAIW/SAMW occurring primarily on the western side of the ocean basins. However, concerning future scenarios, we observe a reduction in the volume of water being formed in the Southern Ocean, signifying potential changes in the dynamics of these critical water masses.