Working Group on Southern Horse Mackerel, Anchovy and Sardine (WGHANSA)

The ICES Working Group on Southern horse mackerel, anchovy and sardine (WGHANSA) assessed the stock status and provided a draft catch advice for anchovy in Atlantic Iberian waters (ane.27.9a; western and southern components) and horse mackerel in Atlantic Iberian waters (hom.27.9a) in the May meeting. However, anchovy in Division 9a was split in two different stocks during the benchmark in September 2024. The advice for the stock in the Gulf of Cadiz and the southern coast of Portugal (originally the southern component of the stock in Division 9a) will be based on a calendar year from now on, and therefore a new assessment was carried out for this stock in November 2024. In addition, an error was found in the biomass index used to provide advice for anchovy in the western part of Division 9.a (originally the western component of anchovy in Division 9.a), and therefore the advice for this stock was reopened in November. Following the terms of reference of the working group, the status of anchovy in Bay of Biscay (ane.27.8), sardine in southern Celtic Seas and the English Channel (pil.27.7), sardine in Bay of Biscay (pil.27.8abd), sardine in Cantabrian Sea and Atlantic Iberian waters (pil.27.8c9a) and jack mackerel in the Azores grounds (jaa.10.a2) were also assessed in the November meeting. Anchovy in the Bay of Biscay (ane.27.8) was benchmarked in 2024 and it is now assessed using a Stock Synthesis integrated model that incorporates catch data (including assumed catch for the interim year) along with data derived from acoustic, egg, and recruitment surveys. SSB is well above Blim and Bpa (no other reference points have been defined for this stock), although a slight decrease is forecasted in 2025 due to a low 2024 recruitment. Fishing mortality has been stable since the fishery reopened in 2010. Overall, no rescaling of the assessment is perceived with the new model, and therefore the current management plan is likely to be still precautionary and it has been used to provide the 2025 catch advice. Nevertheless, a revaluation of the harvest control rule based on the updated stock history is needed. Anchovy in the Gulf of Cadiz and the southern coast of Portugal (southern part of Division 9a) is a new stock as a result of the benchmark in 2024 for anchovy in Division 9a. The new stock is assessed using an age-based model in Stock Synthesis that incorporates catch data (including assumed catch for the interim year), together with data from acoustic, egg, and recruitment surveys. Reference points Blim and Bpa were also estimated. Fishing mortality and SSB have oscillated over time, showing an increasing trend since 2019 the former, and a declining trend since 2021 the latter. Although the stock was identified as category 1 and a short-term forecast was produced, the MSY approach for category 1 short-lived species (i.e. MSY Bescapement strategy) could not be applied to provide the 2025 catch advice because Fcap has not been defined yet. Therefore, the 2025 catch advice is based on the ICES framework for category 3 short-lived stocks using the 1-over-2 rule. The SSB derived from the assessment model was used as the biomass index to apply the harvest control rule. The new advice covers the calendar year 2025, and replaces the advice provided in June 2024 for the period January-June 2025. Anchovy in the western Iberian waters (western part of Division 9a) is also a new stock as a result of the benchmark in 2024 for anchovy in Division 9a. The assessment method has not been reviewed during the benchmark. It is a category 3 stock assessed using a constant harvest rate, same as when it was considered the western component of the stock in Division 9a. The catch advice for the period July 2024-June 2025 was released in June 2024. However, a post analysis of the acoustic survey PELAGO in November 2024 revealed an error in the processing data that led to an underestimation of the anchovy biomass provided for the assessment in May. A new advice with the corrected biomass was estimated in November 2024, and replaces the advice provided in June for the western component of anchovy in Division 9a. Sardine in the southern Celtic Seas and the English Channel (pil.27.7) is a category 3 stock and the catch advice is based on the 1-over-2 rule. The biomass estimates derived from the acoustic survey PELTIC are used as the biomass index to apply the harvest control rule. The 2023 biomass was the highest of the time series (available since 2017) and the 2024 biomass was the second largest estimate. Sardine in the Bay of Biscay (pil.27.9abd) is assessed using an age-based model in Stock Synthesis that incorporates commercial catches (including assumed catches for the interim year), and data derived from acoustic and egg surveys. The stock has been around Blim since 2021 and there is a continuous decreasing trend in weight at age for all ages and maturity at age 1. The SSB estimated in 2024 and forecasted in 2025 are below MSY Btrigger and Bpa but above Blim. Sardine in the Cantabrian Sea and Atlantic Iberian waters (pil.28.8c9a) is assessed using an age-based model in Stock Synthesis that incorporates commercial catches (including assumed catches for the interim year), and data derived from acoustic, egg, and recruitment surveys. The biomass (ages 1+) shows a declining trend for the period 2012-2015, but it has been stable and above MSY Btrigger since 2020. 2025 SSB is forecasted to increase due to a high recruitment in 2024. Fishing mortality has declined since 2015, although it slightly increased in recent years and is now above FMSY. ICES advice is based on the ICES MSY approach. The catch options explored for 2025 include several harvest control rules assessed by ICES as precautionary. Horse mackerel in Atlantic Iberian waters (hom.27.9a) was benchmarked in April 2024. The new assessment model is performed in Stock Synthesis and includes revised biological information and additional indices. It can accommodate for changes in fisheries selectivity, and it is considered to provide more realistic and accurate estimates than the previous model. The reference points and the assumptions for the short-term forecast were also reviewed and updated. The estimated SSB shows an increasing trend since 2013 and is above MSY Btrigger. The fishing mortality has been relatively stable over the years although it has undergone a decreasing trend since 2017. Fishing mortality has been below FMSY for most of the time series. Recruitment in 2023 was lower than in 2022 but is still above the average of the time series. Jack mackerel in the Azores grounds (jaa.27.10a2) is classified as a category 5 stock and the advice is biennial. The majority of the catches are fished by purse-seiners that target juveniles for human consumption. Catches from this fishery have been stable in the last decade. Fishing effort data and catches from other fleets (such as purse seine and longline catches for bait, or recreational catches) are not available for 2022 and 2023. The stock size and exploitation level remain unknown, but the precautionary buffer was not applied to provide advice for 2025 and 2026 because it was applied in the last assessment.

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ICES (2024). Working Group on Southern Horse Mackerel, Anchovy and Sardine (WGHANSA). ICES Scientific Reports/Rapports scientifiques du CIEM. 6 (46). 738pp.. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.26003356, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00928/104003/

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