Predicting the performance of cosmopolitan species: dynamic energy budget model skill drops across large spatial scales

Type Article
Date 2019-02
Language English
Author(s) Monaco CristianORCID1, Porporato Erika M. D.2, Lathlean Justin A.3, Tagliarolo MorganaORCID1, 4, Sara Gianluca5, McQuaid Christopher D.1
Affiliation(s) 1 : Rhodes Univ, Dept Zool & Entomol, ZA-6140 Grahamstown, South Africa.
2 : Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat, I-30170 Venice Mestre, Italy.
3 : Queens Univ Belfast, Sch Biol Sci, Belfast BT7 1NN, Antrim, North Ireland.
4 : IFREMER, UG, CNRS, UMSR LEEISA, Cayenne, French Guiana.
5 : Univ Palermo, Dipartimento Sci Terra & Mare, I-90128 Palermo, Italy.
Source Marine Biology (0025-3162) (Springer Heidelberg), 2019-02 , Vol. 166 , N. 2 , P. 14 (13p.)
DOI 10.1007/s00227-018-3462-4
WOS© Times Cited 13
Abstract

Individual-based models are increasingly used by marine ecologists to predict species responses to environmental change on a mechanistic basis. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models allow the simulation of physiological processes (maintenance, growth, reproduction) in response to variability in environmental drivers. High levels of computational capacity and remote-sensing technologies provide an opportunity to apply existing DEB models across global spatial scales. To do so, however, we must first test the assumption of stationarity, i.e., that parameter values estimated for populations in one location/time are valid for populations elsewhere. Using a validated DEB model parameterized for the cosmopolitan intertidal mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, we ran growth simulations for native, Mediterranean Sea, populations and non-native, South African populations. The model performed well for native populations, but overestimated growth for non-native ones. Overestimations suggest that: (1) unaccounted variables may keep the physiological performance of non-native M. galloprovincialis in check, and/or (2) phenotypic plasticity or local adaptation could modulate responses under different environmental conditions. The study shows that stationary mechanistic models that aim to describe dynamics in complex physiological processes should be treated carefully when implemented across large spatial scales. Instead, we suggest placing the necessary effort into identifying the nuances that result in non-stationarity and explicitly accounting for them in geographic-scale mechanistic models.

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Monaco Cristian, Porporato Erika M. D., Lathlean Justin A., Tagliarolo Morgana, Sara Gianluca, McQuaid Christopher D. (2019). Predicting the performance of cosmopolitan species: dynamic energy budget model skill drops across large spatial scales. Marine Biology, 166(2), 14 (13p.). Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-018-3462-4 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00475/58679/