Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans

Type Article
Date 2020-03
Language English
Author(s) Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea1, Prentice Faelan1, Tittensor Derek P.1, Blanchard Julia L.2, Cheung William W.L.3, Christensen Villy4, Galbraith Eric D.5, 6, Maury Olivier7, 8, Lotze Heike K.1, Favaro Brett
Affiliation(s) 1 : Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
2 : Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Center for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point TAS 7004, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
3 : Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for te Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
4 : Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
5 : Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain
6 : Department of Mathematics, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
7 : Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), MARBEC (IRD, University of Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS), 34203 Sète, France
8 : Department of Oceanography, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
Source Facets (2371-1671) (Canadian Science Publishing), 2020-03 , Vol. 5 , N. 1 , P. 105-122
DOI 10.1139/facets-2019-0035
WOS© Times Cited 1
Keyword(s) climate change, ensemble modeling, marine ecosystem models, Canada Exclusive Economic Zone, Fish-MIP, projection uncertainty
Abstract

Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.

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Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea, Prentice Faelan, Tittensor Derek P., Blanchard Julia L., Cheung William W.L., Christensen Villy, Galbraith Eric D., Maury Olivier, Lotze Heike K., Favaro Brett (2020). Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans. Facets, 5(1), 105-122. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2019-0035 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00613/72464/