Using species distribution models only may underestimate climate change impacts on future marine biodiversity

Type Article
Date 2022-02
Language English
Author(s) Moullec Fabien1, 2, 3, Barrier Nicolas4, Drira Sabrine4, Guilhaumon François3, 5, Hattab Tarek4, Peck Myron A.1, Shin Yunne-Jai3, 6
Affiliation(s) 1 : Department of Coastal Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands
2 : Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IFM), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, (CEN), University of Hamburg, Große Elbstrasse 133, 22767 Hamburg, Germany
3 : MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, Montpellier, France
4 : MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, IRD, CNRS, Sète, France
5 : IRD, La Réunion, France
6 : Marine Research (MA-RE) Institute and Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
Source Ecological Modelling (0304-3800) (Elsevier BV), 2022-02 , Vol. 464 , P. 109826 (11p.)
DOI 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109826
Keyword(s) Beta diversity, Climate change, End-to-end model, Osmose model, Species distribution model, Mediterranean sea
Abstract

In face of global changes, projecting and mapping biodiversity changes are of critical importance to support management and conservation measures of marine ecosystems. Despite the development of a wide variety of ecosystem models capable of integrating an increasing number of ecological processes, most projections of climate-induced changes in marine biodiversity are based on species distribution models (SDMs). These correlative models present a significant advantage when the lack of knowledge on the species physiology is counterbalanced by the availability of relevant environmental variables over the species geographical range. However, correlative SDMs neglect intra- and inter-specific interactions and thereby can lead to biased projections of changes in biodiversity distribution. To evaluate the influence of trophic interactions on projections of species richness and assemblage composition under climate change scenarios, we compared biodiversity projections derived from an ensemble of different SDMs to projections derived from a hybrid model coupling SDMs and a multispecies trophic model in the Mediterranean Sea. Our results show that accounting for trophic interactions modifies projections of future biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, SDMs tended to overestimate the gains and underestimate the losses of species richness by the end of the 21st century, with marked local differences in projections, both in terms of magnitude and trend, in some biodiversity hotspots. In both SDMs and hybrid approaches, nestedness with gains in species richness was the main pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future fish and macro-invertebrate species assemblages at the Mediterranean basin scale. However, at local scale, we highlighted some differences in the relative contribution of nestedness vs replacement in driving dissimilarity. Our results call for the development of integrated modelling tools that can mechanistically consider multiple biotic and abiotic drivers to improve projections of future marine biodiversity.

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