Blooms of the toxic benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata can induce ecological and human health issues in certain temperate areas. In order to prevent these negative effects, long-term monitoring studies of O. cf. ovata blooms have been conducted in several impacted areas to have a comprehensive understanding of bloom dynamics and efficient tools for risk management.

O. cf. ovata blooms were monitored every summer (from mid-June to the end of August) on five identified sites in Larvotto beach (Monaco, NW Mediterranean Sea), between 2007 and 2019. This time-series represents one of the largest time-series in the world describing blooms of this species.

Bloom phenological features (timing, duration, maximum cell abundance and growth rate), were found to be highly variable throughout the studied period, and were analyzed as a function of different hydroclimatic parameters, including sea surface temperature (SST). The highest net growth rates were related to temperatures ranging between 21°C and 25°C, and did not coincide with maximal temperature records (27.5°C). Such results suggest that, although global warming possibly influences the expansion of O. cf. ovata from tropical to temperate waters, the definite impact of temperature on bloom dynamics might be more complex than a simple facilitation factor for algal growth, at least in NW Mediterranean waters.

Furthermore, monthly SST anomalies calculated over this 13-year survey showed a strong positive correlation between spring SST positive anomalies and the bloom starting date, indicating that blooms occurred earlier in the season when spring SSTs were warmer than usual.

Overall results provide tools to modelers and managers who are facing crucial challenges to predict the distribution and phenology of O. cf. ovata blooms in European coastal waters, moreover in a context of global warming.