Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures
| Type | Article | ||||||||||||||||
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| Date | 2023-09 | ||||||||||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||||||||||
| Author(s) | Kim Hyejin1, 2, Peterson Garry 3, Cheung William4, Ferrier Simon5, Alkemade Rob6, 7, Arneth Almut8, Kuiper Jan3, Okayasu Sana6, Pereira Laura M.3, 9, 10, Acosta Lilibeth A.11, Chaplin-Kramer Rebecca12, 13, Belder Eefje Den6, 14, Eddy Tyler15, Johnson Justin16, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen Sylvia17, Kok Marcel6, Leadley Paul18, Leclère David19, Lundquist Carolyn J.20, 21, Rondinini Carlo22, 23, Scholes Robert J.9, Schoolenberg Machteld6, Shin Yunne-Jai24, Stehfest Elke6, Stephenson Fabrice20, Visconti Piero19, Van Vuuren Detlef P.6, 10, Wabnitz Colette C.4, 25, Alava Juan José4, Cuadros-Casanova Ivon22, Davies Kathryn K.20, 26, Gasalla Maria A.27, Halouani Ghassen28, Harfoot Michael B. J.29, Hashimoto Shizuka30, Hickler Thomas31, 32, Hirsch Tim33, Kolomytsev Grigory34, Miller Brian35, Ohashi Haruka36, Palomo Maria Gabriela37, Popp Alexander38, Remme Roy Paco12, 39, Saito Osamu40, Sumaila Rashid4, 41, Willcock Simon42, 43, Pereira Henrique1, 2, 44 |
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| Affiliation(s) | 1 : German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany 2 : Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Salle), Germany 3 : Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden 4 : Institute for the Fisheries and Oceans, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada 5 : CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia 6 : PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands 7 : Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands 8 : KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany 9 : Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa 10 : Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, The Netherlands 11 : Climate Action and Inclusive Development Department, Global Green Growth Institute, Seoul, South Korea 12 : Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA 13 : Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA 14 : Agrosystems Research, Wageningen University, The Netherlands 15 : Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Canada 16 : Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, USA 17 : Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University & Research, The Netherlands 18 : Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Orsay, France 19 : Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria 20 : National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Hamilton, New Zealand 21 : School of Environment, University of Auckland, New Zealand 22 : Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy 23 : Center for Global Wildlife Conservation, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, USA 24 : Univ Montpellier, IRD, IFREMER, CNRS, MARBEC, Montpellier, France 25 : Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA 26 : Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, USA 27 : University of Sao Paulo, Oceanographic Institute, Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory (LabPesq), Brazil 28 : IFREMER, Unité halieutique Manche Mer du Nord Ifremer, Boulogne-sur-mer, France 29 : UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK 30 : Department of Ecosystem Studies, University of Tokyo, Japan 31 : Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany 32 : Department of Physical Geography, Goethe-University, Frankfurt, Germany 33 : Global Biodiversity Information Facility Secretariat, Copenhagen Ø, Denmark 34 : I.I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine 35 : U.S. Geological Survey, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Fort Collins, CO, USA 36 : Department of Wildlife Biology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Forest Research and Management Organization , Japan 37 : Natural History Museum of Argentina, Parque Centenario, Argentina 38 : Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany 39 : Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands 40 : Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Kanagawa, Japan 41 : School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada 42 : Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK 43 : School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK 44 : CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)–InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto, Vairão, Portugal |
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| Source | Global Environmental Change-human And Policy Dimensions (0959-3780) (Elsevier), 2023-09 , Vol. 82 , P. 102681 (14p.) | ||||||||||||||||
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681 | ||||||||||||||||
| WOS© Times Cited | 8 | ||||||||||||||||
| Keyword(s) | Scenario analysis, Biodiversity, Conservation, Sustainability, Values, Futures | ||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people and quality of life. |
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