Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Type Article
Date 2023-09
Language English
Author(s) Kim Hyejin1, 2, Peterson GarryORCID3, Cheung WilliamORCID4, Ferrier Simon5, Alkemade Rob6, 7, Arneth Almut8, Kuiper Jan3, Okayasu Sana6, Pereira Laura M.ORCID3, 9, 10, Acosta Lilibeth A.11, Chaplin-Kramer Rebecca12, 13, Belder Eefje Den6, 14, Eddy TylerORCID15, Johnson Justin16, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen Sylvia17, Kok Marcel6, Leadley Paul18, Leclère David19, Lundquist Carolyn J.20, 21, Rondinini Carlo22, 23, Scholes Robert J.9, Schoolenberg Machteld6, Shin Yunne-Jai24, Stehfest Elke6, Stephenson Fabrice20, Visconti Piero19, Van Vuuren Detlef P.6, 10, Wabnitz Colette C.ORCID4, 25, Alava Juan JoséORCID4, Cuadros-Casanova Ivon22, Davies Kathryn K.20, 26, Gasalla Maria A.27, Halouani GhassenORCID28, Harfoot Michael B. J.29, Hashimoto Shizuka30, Hickler Thomas31, 32, Hirsch Tim33, Kolomytsev Grigory34, Miller Brian35, Ohashi HarukaORCID36, Palomo Maria Gabriela37, Popp Alexander38, Remme Roy Paco12, 39, Saito Osamu40, Sumaila Rashid4, 41, Willcock Simon42, 43, Pereira Henrique1, 2, 44
Affiliation(s) 1 : German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
2 : Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Salle), Germany
3 : Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
4 : Institute for the Fisheries and Oceans, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
5 : CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia
6 : PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands
7 : Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
8 : KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
9 : Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa
10 : Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
11 : Climate Action and Inclusive Development Department, Global Green Growth Institute, Seoul, South Korea
12 : Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
13 : Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
14 : Agrosystems Research, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
15 : Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Canada
16 : Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, USA
17 : Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University & Research, The Netherlands
18 : Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Orsay, France
19 : Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
20 : National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Hamilton, New Zealand
21 : School of Environment, University of Auckland, New Zealand
22 : Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
23 : Center for Global Wildlife Conservation, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, USA
24 : Univ Montpellier, IRD, IFREMER, CNRS, MARBEC, Montpellier, France
25 : Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
26 : Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, USA
27 : University of Sao Paulo, Oceanographic Institute, Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory (LabPesq), Brazil
28 : IFREMER, Unité halieutique Manche Mer du Nord Ifremer, Boulogne-sur-mer, France
29 : UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK
30 : Department of Ecosystem Studies, University of Tokyo, Japan
31 : Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany
32 : Department of Physical Geography, Goethe-University, Frankfurt, Germany
33 : Global Biodiversity Information Facility Secretariat, Copenhagen Ø, Denmark
34 : I.I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
35 : U.S. Geological Survey, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Fort Collins, CO, USA
36 : Department of Wildlife Biology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Forest Research and Management Organization , Japan
37 : Natural History Museum of Argentina, Parque Centenario, Argentina
38 : Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
39 : Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands
40 : Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Kanagawa, Japan
41 : School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
42 : Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK
43 : School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK
44 : CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)–InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto, Vairão, Portugal
Source Global Environmental Change-human And Policy Dimensions (0959-3780) (Elsevier), 2023-09 , Vol. 82 , P. 102681 (14p.)
DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681
WOS© Times Cited 8
Keyword(s) Scenario analysis, Biodiversity, Conservation, Sustainability, Values, Futures

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people and quality of life.

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Kim Hyejin, Peterson Garry, Cheung William, Ferrier Simon, Alkemade Rob, Arneth Almut, Kuiper Jan, Okayasu Sana, Pereira Laura M., Acosta Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer Rebecca, Belder Eefje Den, Eddy Tyler, Johnson Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen Sylvia, Kok Marcel, Leadley Paul, Leclère David, Lundquist Carolyn J., Rondinini Carlo, Scholes Robert J., Schoolenberg Machteld, Shin Yunne-Jai, Stehfest Elke, Stephenson Fabrice, Visconti Piero, Van Vuuren Detlef P., Wabnitz Colette C., Alava Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova Ivon, Davies Kathryn K., Gasalla Maria A., Halouani Ghassen, Harfoot Michael B. J., Hashimoto Shizuka, Hickler Thomas, Hirsch Tim, Kolomytsev Grigory, Miller Brian, Ohashi Haruka, Palomo Maria Gabriela, Popp Alexander, Remme Roy Paco, Saito Osamu, Sumaila Rashid, Willcock Simon, Pereira Henrique (2023). Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures. Global Environmental Change-human And Policy Dimensions, 82, 102681 (14p.). Publisher's official version : , Open Access version :