Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people and quality of life.

Keyword(s)

Scenario analysis, Biodiversity, Conservation, Sustainability, Values, Futures

Full Text

FilePagesSizeAccess
Preprint - 10.31235/osf.io/93sqp
442 Mo
Publisher's official version
143 Mo
Supplementary Data 1.
-734 Ko
How to cite
Kim HyeJin, Peterson Garry, Cheung William, Ferrier Simon, Alkemade Rob, Arneth Almut, Kuiper Jan, Okayasu Sana, Pereira Laura M., Acosta Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer rebecca, Belder Eefje den, Eddy Tyler, Johnson Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen Sylvia, Kok Marcel, Leadley Paul, Leclère David, Lundquist Carolyn J., Rondinini Carlo, Scholes Robert J., Schoolenberg Machteld, Shin Yunne-Jai, Stehfest Elke, Stephenson Fabrice, Visconti Piero, Van Vuuren Detlef P., Wabnitz Colette C., Alava Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova Ivon, Davies Kathryn K., Gasalla Maria A., Halouani Ghassen, Harfoot Michael B. J., Hashimoto Shizuka, Hickler Thomas, Hirsch Tim, Kolomytsev Grigory, Miller Brian, Ohashi Haruka, Palomo Maria Gabriela, Popp Alexander, Remme Roy Paco, Saito Osamu, Sumaila Rashid, Willcock Simon, Pereira Henrique (2023). Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures. Global Environmental Change-human And Policy Dimensions. 82. 102681 (14p.). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00794/90616/

Copy this text