Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?

Type Article
Date 2023-01-01
Language English
Author(s) Guillotreau Patrice1, Lantz Frédéric2, Nadzon Lesya3, Rault Jonathan1, Maury Olivier1
Affiliation(s) 1 : MARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, france
2 : IFP Énergies Nouvelles School, france
3 : LINDE GAS Benelux, belgium
Source Marine Resource Economics (0738-1360) (University of Chicago Press), 2023-01-01 , Vol. 38 , N. 1 , P. 29-46
DOI 10.1086/722490
Abstract

Because most food processes are fossil fuel–based, many food markets are more or less connected to the oil market. Fishing technology in the high seas being energy-intensive, higher oil prices should affect the fish markets. This research looks at price transmission between marine diesel oil and a global fishery commodity, frozen skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) through a time series analysis combining four different methods to look for possible structural breaks and regime shifts in the relationship (Bai-Perron, Lavielle, Gregory-Hansen, Markov-switching). Our results prove that the long-run equilibrium between both prices is weakening after the turn of the 2010s. Explaining the drivers of change is of great interest for short-term forecast but also to build long-term scenarios where both supply and demand variables are likely to affect tuna markets.

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How to cite 

Guillotreau Patrice, Lantz Frédéric, Nadzon Lesya, Rault Jonathan, Maury Olivier (2023). Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices? Marine Resource Economics, 38(1), 29-46. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1086/722490 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00817/92848/