Evaluating the strategies to control SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant spread in New Caledonia, a Zero COVID country until September 2021
| Type | Article | ||||||||||||
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| Date | 2023-09 | ||||||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||||||
| Author(s) | Ochida Noé1, 2, Dupont-Rouzeyrol Myrielle2, Moury Pierre-Henri3, 4, 5, Demaneuf Thibaut6, Gourinat Ann-Clair7, Mabon Sébastien6, Jouan Marc2, 4, Cauchemez Simon8, Mangeas Morgan1 | ||||||||||||
| Affiliation(s) | 1 : UMR ENTROPIE, IRD/Univ. Réunion/IFREMER/Univ. de Nouvelle-Calédonie/CNRS, Nouméa, New Caledonia 2 : PNC Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Pasteur Network, URE-DA Dengue et Arboviruses Unit, 98845, Nouméa, New Caledonia 3 : CHU Grenoble Alpes, Pôle Anesthésie-Réanimation, CS 10217, CEDEX 9, Grenoble, France 4 : IPNC Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Pasteur Network, URE-EPI Epidemiology Unit, 98845, Nouméa, New Caledonia 5 : Centre Hospitalier Territorial Gaston-Bourret, Intensive Care Unit, Dumbea-Sur-Mer, 98835, New Caledonia 6 : DASS Direction des Affaires Sanitaires et Sociales, Nouméa, New Caledonia 7 : Centre Hospitalier Territorial Gaston-Bourret, Microbiology Laboratory, Dumbea-Sur-Mer, 98835, New Caledonia 8 : Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France |
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| Source | Ijid Regions (2772-7076) (Elsevier), 2023-09 , Vol. 8 , P. 64-70 | ||||||||||||
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.06.004 | ||||||||||||
| Keyword(s) | COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Zero-COVID, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Vaccine, Modelling | ||||||||||||
| Abstract | Objectives New Caledonia, a former Zero-COVID country, was confronted with a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak in September 2021. We evaluate the relative contribution of vaccination, lockdown and timing of interventions on healthcare burden. Methods We developed an age-stratified mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination calibrated for New Caledonia and evaluated three alternative scenarios. Results High virus transmission early on was estimated, R0 equal to 6.6 (95% CI [6.4 – 6.7]). Lockdown reduced R0 by 73% (95% CI [70 - 76%]). Easing the lockdown increased transmission (39% reduction of the initial R0); but we did not observe an epidemic rebound. This contrasts with the rebound in hospital admissions (+116% total hospital admissions) that would have been expected in the absence of an intensified vaccination campaign (76,220 people or 34.12% of the eligible population were first-dose vaccinated during one month of lockdown). A 15-day earlier lockdown would have led to a significant reduction in the magnitude of the epidemic (-53% total hospital admissions). Conclusions The success of the response against the Delta variant epidemic in New Caledonia was due to an effective lockdown that provided additional time for people to vaccinate. Earlier lockdown would have greatly mitigated the magnitude of the epidemic. |
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