Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected future changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models (ESMs) used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Keyword(s)

biological sciences, climatology (global change), ecology, oceanography

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Murphy Kieran, Arcos L. Denisse Fierro, Rohr Tyler Weaver, Green David Bruce, Novaglio Camilla, Baker Katherine, Ortega-Cisneros Kelly, Eddy Tyler, Harrison Cheryl Shannon, Hill Simeon, Keith Patrick, Cataldo-Mendez Camila, Petrik Colleen M, Pinkerton matt, Spence Paul, Stollberg Ilaria, Subramaniam Roshni, Trebilco Rowan, Tulloch Vivitskaia, Palacios-Abrantes Juliano, Bestley Sophie, Bianchi Daniele, Boyd Philip W, Buchanan Pearse James, Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea, Coll Marta, Corney Stuart Paul, Datta Samik, Everett Jason D, Forestier Romain, Fulton Beth, Galton-Fenzi Benjamin Keith, Luzinais Vianney Guibourd de, Heneghan Ryan, Mason Julia G, Maury Olivier, McMahon Clive R., Murphy Eugene J., Richardson Anthony, Tittensor Derek, Spillias Scott, Steenbeek Jeroen Gerhard, Veytia Devi, Blanchard Julia L. (2024). Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties. ESS Open Archive. INPRESS. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171580194.49771608/v1, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00890/100196/

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