Global carbon budget 2013

Type Article
Date 2014
Language English
Author(s) Le Quere C.1, Peters G. P.2, Andres R. J.3, Andrew R. M.2, Boden T. A.3, Ciais P.4, Friedlingstein P.5, Houghton R. A.6, Marland G.7, Moriarty R.1, Sitch S.8, Tans P.9, Arneth A.10, Arvanitis A.10, Bakker D. C. E.11, Bopp L.4, Canadell J. G.12, Chini L. P.13, Doney S. C.14, Harper A.15, Harris I.16, House J. I.17, Jain A. K.18, Jones S. D.1, Kato E.19, Keeling R. F.20, Klein Goldewijk K.21, 22, Koertzinger A.23, Koven C.24, Lefevre N.25, Maignan F.4, Omar A.26, 27, Ono T.28, Park G. H.29, Pfeil B.27, 30, Poulter B.31, Raupach M. R.12, Regnier P.32, Roedenbeck C.33, Saito S.34, Schwinger J.27, 30, Segschneider J.35, Stocker B. D.36, 37, Takahashi T.38, Tilbrook B.39, 40, Van Heuven S.41, Viovy N.4, Wanninkhof R.43, Wiltshire A.42, Zaehle S.33
Affiliation(s) 1 : Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
2 : CICERO, Oslo, Norway.
3 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, CDIAC, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
4 : CEA CNRS UVSQ, CE Orme Merisiers, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
5 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England.
6 : WHRC, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.
7 : Appalachian State Univ, Res Inst Environm Energy & Econ, Boone, NC 28608 USA.
8 : Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England.
9 : NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
10 : Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Research Atmospher Enviro, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany.
11 : Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Ctr Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
12 : CSIRO Marine & Atmospher Res, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
13 : Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
14 : Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA.
15 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QJ, Devon, England.
16 : Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
17 : Univ Bristol, Dept Geog, Cabot Inst, Bristol BS8 1TH, Avon, England.
18 : Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61821 USA.
19 : NIES, CGER, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
20 : Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.
21 : PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
22 : Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.
23 : GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res, D-24148 Kiel, Germany.
24 : Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Div Earth Sci, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
25 : Univ Paris 06, Univ Paris 04, LOCEAN Lab, CNRS IRD MNHN, F-75005 Paris, France.
26 : Uni Res AS, Uni Climate, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
27 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
28 : Fisheries Res Agcy, Nishi Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2206115, Japan.
29 : KIOST, East Sea Res Inst, Uljin 767813, South Korea.
30 : Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, Bergen, Norway.
31 : Montana State Univ, Dept Ecol, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA.
32 : Univ Libre Bruxelles, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium.
33 : Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
34 : Japan Meteorol Agcy, Global Environm & Marine Dept, Marine Div, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1008122, Japan.
35 : Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
36 : Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
37 : Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
38 : Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA.
39 : CSIRO Marine & Atmospher Res, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
40 : Antarctic Climate & Ecosyst Cooperat Res Ctr, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
41 : Univ Groningen, Ctr Isotope Res, Groningen, Netherlands.
42 : NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
43 : Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.
Source Earth System Science Data (1866-3508) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2014 , Vol. 6 , N. 1 , P. 235-263
DOI 10.5194/essd-6-235-2014
WOS© Times Cited 341
Note supported by the EU FP7 for funding through projects GEOCarbon (283080), COMBINE (226520), EMBRACE (GA282672), and LUC4C (GA603542)
Abstract Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), E-FF was 8.6 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.5 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.8 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2012 alone, E-FF grew to 9.7 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and assuming an E-LUC of 1.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) (based on the 2001-2010 average), S-LAND was 2.7 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.1% (1.1-3.1 %) to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 +/- 55 GtC for 1870-2013, about 70% from E-FF (390 +/- 20 GtC) and 30% from E-LUC (145 +/- 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quere et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3).
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Le Quere C., Peters G. P., Andres R. J., Andrew R. M., Boden T. A., Ciais P., Friedlingstein P., Houghton R. A., Marland G., Moriarty R., Sitch S., Tans P., Arneth A., Arvanitis A., Bakker D. C. E., Bopp L., Canadell J. G., Chini L. P., Doney S. C., Harper A., Harris I., House J. I., Jain A. K., Jones S. D., Kato E., Keeling R. F., Klein Goldewijk K., Koertzinger A., Koven C., Lefevre N., Maignan F., Omar A., Ono T., Park G. H., Pfeil B., Poulter B., Raupach M. R., Regnier P., Roedenbeck C., Saito S., Schwinger J., Segschneider J., Stocker B. D., Takahashi T., Tilbrook B., Van Heuven S., Viovy N., Wanninkhof R., Wiltshire A., Zaehle S. (2014). Global carbon budget 2013. Earth System Science Data, 6(1), 235-263. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00291/40261/