Global Carbon Budget 2020

Type Article
Date 2020-12
Language English
Author(s) Friedlingstein Pierre1, 2, O'Sullivan Michael2, Jones Matthew W.3, Andrew Robbie M.4, Hauck Judith5, Olsen AreORCID6, 7, Peters Glen P.4, Peters Wouter8, 9, Pongratz Julia10, 11, Sitch Stephen12, Le Quere CorinneORCID3, Canadell Josep G.13, Ciais Philippe14, Jackson Robert B.15, 16, Alin Simone17, Aragao Luiz E. O. C.18, Arneth Almut19, Arora Vivek20, Bates Nicholas R.21, 22, Becker Meike6, 7, Benoit-Cattin Alice23, Bittig Henry C.24, Bopp Laurent24, Bultan Selma10, Chandra Naveen25, 26, Chevallier FredericORCID14, Chini Louise P.27, Evans Wiley28, Florentie Liesbeth8, Forster Piers M.29, Gasser Thomas30, Gehlen Marion14, Gilfillan Dennis31, Gkritzalis Thanos32, Gregor Luke33, 34, 35, Gruber NicolasORCID34, 35, Harris Ian36, Hartung Kerstin73, Haverd Vanessa, Houghton Richard A.37, Ilyina Tatiana, Jain Atul K., Joetzjer Emilie38, Kadono Koji39, Kato Etsushi40, Kitidis Vassilis41, Korsbakken Jan Ivar4, Landschutzer Peter, Lefevre Nathalie42, Lenton Andrew43, Lienert Sebastian44, 45, Liu Zhu46, Lombardozzi Danica47, Marland Gregg48, Metzl Nicolas42, Munro David R.49, 50, Nabel Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro, Niwa Yosuke51, O'Brien Kevin17, 52, Ono Tsuneo53, Palmer Paul I.54, 55, Pierrot Denis56, Poulter Benjamin57, Resplandy Laure58, 59, Robertson Eddy60, Rodenbeck Christian61, Schwinger Jorg62, Seferian Roland38, Skjelvan Ingunn62, Smith Adam J. P., Sutton Adrienne J.17, Tanhua Toste63, Tans Pieter P.64, Tian Hanqin65, Tilbrook Bronte43, 66, Van Der Werf Guido67, Vuichard Nicolas14, Walker Anthony P.68, 69, Wanninkhof Rik56, Watson Andrew J.12, Willis David70, Wiltshire Andrew J.60, Yuan Wenping71, Yue Xu72, Zaehle Sonke61
Affiliation(s) 1 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England.
2 : UPMC X, Ecole Normale Super, CNRS, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace,Lab Meteorol Dynam, 24 Rue Lhomond, F-75005 Paris, France.
3 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
4 : CICERO Ctr Int Climate Res, N-0349 Oslo, Norway.
5 : Helmholtz Zentum Polar & Meeresforsch, Alfred Wegener Inst, Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany.
6 : Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, Bergen, Norway.
7 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway.
8 : Wageningen Univ, Environm Sci Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
9 : Univ Groningen, Ctr Isotope Res, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands.
10 : Ludwig Maximilians Univ Munchen, Luisenstr 37, D-80333 Munich, Germany.
11 : Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
12 : Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England.
13 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2101, Australia.
14 : Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, IPSL, CEA,CNRS,UVSQ, F-91198 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
15 : Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
16 : Stanford Univ, Precourt Inst Energy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
17 : NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA.
18 : Natl Inst Space Res, Remote Sensing Div, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil.
19 : Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany.
20 : Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Div Climate Res, Victoria, BC, Canada.
21 : Bermuda Inst Ocean Sci BIOS, 17 Biol Lane, St Georges GE01, Bermuda.
22 : Univ Southampton, Dept Ocean & Earth Sci, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England.
23 : Marine & Freshwater Res Inst, Fornubudir 5, IS-220 Hafnarfjordur, Iceland.
24 : Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemuende IOW, Seestr 15, D-18119 Rostock, Germany.
25 : Univ PSL, Sorbonne Univ, Ecole Polytech,Lab Meteorol Dynam, Ecole Normale Super,Inst Pierre Simon Laplace,CNR, Paris, France.
26 : Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan.
27 : Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
28 : Univ Maryland, Dept Geol Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
29 : Hakai Inst, Heriot Bay, BC, Canada.
30 : Univ Leeds, Priestley Int Ctr Climate, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.
31 : Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-12361 Laxenburg, Austria.
32 : Appalachian State Univ, Res Inst Environm Energy & Econ, Boone, NC 28608 USA.
33 : Flanders Marine Inst VLIZ, InnovOceanSite,Wandelaarkaai 7, B-8400 Oostende, Belgium.
34 : Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Environm Phys Grp, Inst Biogeochem & Pollutant Dynam, Zurich, Switzerland.
35 : Ctr Climate Syst Modeling C2SM, Zurich, Switzerland.
36 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, NCAS Climate, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
37 : Woods Hole Res Ctr, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.
38 : Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61821 USA.
39 : Japan Meteorol Agcy, Chiyoda Ku, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Tokyo 1008122, Japan.
40 : Inst Appl Energy, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1050003, Japan.
41 : Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL13DH, Devon, England.
42 : Sorbonne Univ, CNRS, IRD, MNHN,LOCEAN,IPSL Lab, Paris, France.
43 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
44 : Univ Bern, Inst Phys, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland.
45 : Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland.
46 : Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China.
47 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Terr Sci Sect, Climate & Global Dynam, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
48 : Appalachian State Univ, Dept Geol & Environm Sci, Boone, NC 28608 USA.
49 : Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
50 : NOAA, GML, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
51 : Meteorol Res Inst, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan.
52 : Univ Washington, Cooperat Inst Climate Ocean & Ecosyst Studies, Seattle, WA 98105 USA.
53 : Japan Fisheries Res & Educ Agcy, Kanazawa Ku, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2368648, Japan.
54 : Univ Edinburgh, Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland.
55 : Univ Edinburgh, School GeoSci, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland.
56 : Natl Ocean & Atmospher Adm, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
57 : NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA.
58 : Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
59 : Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
60 : Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.
61 : Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, POB 600164,Hans Knoll Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
62 : NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Jahnebakken 5, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
63 : GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Dusternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.
64 : NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
65 : Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, Auburn, AL 36849 USA.
66 : Univ Tasmania, Australian Antarct Partnership Program, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
67 : Vrije Univ, Fac Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
68 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
69 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
70 : Univ East Anglia, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
71 : Sun Yat Sen Univ, Zhuhai Key Lab Dynam Urban Climate & Ecol, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Climate Change & Nat Disas, Sch Atmospher Sci, Zhuhai 510245, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
72 : Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Atmospher Environm & Equip, Jiangsu Key Lab Atmospher Environm Monitoring & P, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China.
73 : Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt, Inst Phys Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany.
Source Earth System Science Data (1866-3508) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2020-12 , Vol. 12 , N. 4 , P. 3269-3340
DOI 10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020
WOS© Times Cited 65
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions ( EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change ( ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink ( SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink ( S-LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance ( B-IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma. For the last decade available (2010-2019), E-FOS was 9.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1). For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 +/- 0.02 GtC yr(-1) (2.4 +/- 0.01 ppm yr(-1)), SOCEAN 2.5 +/- 0.6 GtC yr(-1) and SLAND 3.4 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1), with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.1 GtC yr(-1) indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1% with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr 1 (42.2 +/- 3.3 GtCO(2)). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr 1 (2.5 +/- 0.1 ppm yr 1), SOCEAN was 2.6 +/- 0.6 GtC yr 1, and SLAND was 3.1 +/- 1.2 GtC yr(-1), with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 +/- 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about 7% (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of 6 %, 7 %, 7% ( 3% to 11 %), and 13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr 1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quere et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).

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Friedlingstein Pierre, O'Sullivan Michael, Jones Matthew W., Andrew Robbie M., Hauck Judith, Olsen Are, Peters Glen P., Peters Wouter, Pongratz Julia, Sitch Stephen, Le Quere Corinne, Canadell Josep G., Ciais Philippe, Jackson Robert B., Alin Simone, Aragao Luiz E. O. C., Arneth Almut, Arora Vivek, Bates Nicholas R., Becker Meike, Benoit-Cattin Alice, Bittig Henry C., Bopp Laurent, Bultan Selma, Chandra Naveen, Chevallier Frederic, Chini Louise P., Evans Wiley, Florentie Liesbeth, Forster Piers M., Gasser Thomas, Gehlen Marion, Gilfillan Dennis, Gkritzalis Thanos, Gregor Luke, Gruber Nicolas, Harris Ian, Hartung Kerstin, Haverd Vanessa, Houghton Richard A., Ilyina Tatiana, Jain Atul K., Joetzjer Emilie, Kadono Koji, Kato Etsushi, Kitidis Vassilis, Korsbakken Jan Ivar, Landschutzer Peter, Lefevre Nathalie, Lenton Andrew, Lienert Sebastian, Liu Zhu, Lombardozzi Danica, Marland Gregg, Metzl Nicolas, Munro David R., Nabel Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro, Niwa Yosuke, O'Brien Kevin, Ono Tsuneo, Palmer Paul I., Pierrot Denis, Poulter Benjamin, Resplandy Laure, Robertson Eddy, Rodenbeck Christian, Schwinger Jorg, Seferian Roland, Skjelvan Ingunn, Smith Adam J. P., Sutton Adrienne J., Tanhua Toste, Tans Pieter P., Tian Hanqin, Tilbrook Bronte, Van Der Werf Guido, Vuichard Nicolas, Walker Anthony P., Wanninkhof Rik, Watson Andrew J., Willis David, Wiltshire Andrew J., Yuan Wenping, Yue Xu, Zaehle Sonke (2020). Global Carbon Budget 2020. Earth System Science Data, 12(4), 3269-3340. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00677/78860/