Global Carbon Budget 2017

Type Article
Date 2018-03
Language English
Author(s) Le Quere CorinneORCID1, Andrew Robbie M.2, Friedlingstein Pierre3, Sitch Stephen4, Pongratz Julia5, Manning Andrew C.6, Korsbakken Jan Ivar2, Peters Glen P.2, Canadell Josep G.7, Jackson Robert B.8, 9, Boden Thomas A.10, Tans Pieter P.11, Andrews Oliver D.1, Arora Vivek K.12, Bakker Dorothee C. E.6, Barbero Leticia13, 14, Becker Meike15, 16, Betts Richard A.4, 17, Bopp Laurent18, Chevallier Frederic19, Chini Louise P.20, Ciais Philippe19, Cosca Catherine E.21, Cross Jessica21, Currie Kim22, Gasser ThomasORCID23, Harris Ian24, Hauck Judith25, Haverd Vanessa26, Houghton Richard A.27, Hunt Christopher W.28, Hurtt George20, Ilyina Tatiana5, Jain Atul K.29, Kato Etsushi30, Kautz Markus31, Keeling Ralph F.32, Goldewijk Kees Klein33, 34, Koertzinger Arne35, Landschuetzer Peter5, Lefevre Nathalie36, Lenton Andrew37, 38, Lienert Sebastian39, 40, Lima Ivan41, Lombardozzi Danica42, Metzl Nicolas36, Millero Frank43, Monteiro Pedro M. S.44, Munro David R.45, 46, Nabel Julia E. M. S.5, Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro47, Nojiri Yukihiro47, Padin X. Antonio48, Peregon Anna19, Pfeil Benjamin15, 16, Pierrot Denis13, 14, Poulter Benjamin49, 50, Rehder Gregor51, Reimer Janet52, Roedenbeck Christian53, Schwinger Jorg54, Seferian Roland55, Skjelvan Ingunn54, Stocker Benjamin D.56, Tian Hanqin57, Tilbrook BronteORCID37, 38, Tubiello Francesco N.58, Van Der Laan-Luijkx Ingrid T.59, Van Der Werf Guido R.60, Van Heuven Steven61, Viovy Nicolas19, Vuichard Nicolas19, Walker Anthony P.62, 63, Watson Andrew J., Wiltshire Andrew J.4, 17, Zaehle Soenke53, Zhu Dan19
Affiliation(s) 1 : Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
2 : CICERO Ctr Int Climate Res, N-0349 Oslo, Norway.
3 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England.
4 : Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England.
5 : Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
6 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Ctr Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
7 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Global Carbon Project, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
8 : Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
9 : Stanford Univ, Precourt Inst Energy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
10 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
11 : NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
12 : Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Climate Res Div, Victoria, BC, Canada.
13 : Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Studies, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
14 : NOAA, AOML, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
15 : Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
16 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
17 : Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.
18 : CNRS ENS UPMC X, Dept Geosci, Ecole Normale Super, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace,Lab Meteorol Dynam, 24 Rue Lhomond, F-75005 Paris, France.
19 : CEA CNRS UVSQ, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, CE Orme Merisiers, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
20 : Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
21 : NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA 98115 USA.
22 : Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res NIWA, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand.
23 : IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
24 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, NCAS Climate Climat Res Unit, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
25 : Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Inst, Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany.
26 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
27 : WHRC, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.
28 : Univ New Hampshire, Ocean Proc Anal Lab, Durham, NH 03824 USA.
29 : Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA.
30 : IAE, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1050003, Japan.
31 : Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Research Atmospher Enviro, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany.
32 : Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.
33 : PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30,POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands.
34 : Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Dept IMEW, Fac Geosci, Heidelberglaan 2,POB 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
35 : GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Dusternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.
36 : Univ Paris 06, UPMC, Sorbonne Univ, CNRS,IRD,MNHN,LOCEAN IPSL Lab, F-75252 Paris, France.
37 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, POB 1538, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
38 : Univ Tasmania, Antarctic Climate & Ecosyst Cooperat Res Ctr, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
39 : Univ Bern, Phys Inst, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland.
40 : Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland.
41 : WHOI, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA.
42 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Terr Sci Sect, Climate & Global Dynam, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
43 : Univ Miami, RSMAS MAC, Dept Ocean Sci, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
44 : CSIR CHPC, Ocean Syst & Climate, ZA-7700 Cape Town, South Africa.
45 : Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
46 : Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
47 : Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
48 : CSIC, Inst Invest Marinas, Vigo 36208, Spain.
49 : NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA.
50 : Montana State Univ, Dept Ecol, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA.
51 : Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemunde, D-18119 Rostock, Germany.
52 : Univ Delaware, Sch Marine Sci & Policy, Newark, DE 19716 USA.
53 : Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, POB 600164,Hans Knoll Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
54 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res Climate, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
55 : Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Unite Mixte Rech, Meteo France CNRS 3589, 42 Ave Gaspard Coriolis, F-31100 Toulouse, France.
56 : CREAF, E-08193 Bellaterra, Spain.
57 : Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, 602 Ducan Dr, Auburn, AL 36849 USA.
58 : Food & Agr Org United Nat, Stat Div, Via Terme di Caracalla, I-00153 Rome, Italy.
59 : Wageningen Univ & Res, Dept Meteorol & Air Qual, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
60 : Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Fac Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
61 : Univ Groningen, ESRIG, Groningen, Netherlands.
62 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
63 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
Source Earth System Science Data (1866-3508) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2018-03 , Vol. 10 , N. 1 , P. 405-448
DOI 10.5194/essd-10-405-2018
WOS© Times Cited 368
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

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Le Quere Corinne, Andrew Robbie M., Friedlingstein Pierre, Sitch Stephen, Pongratz Julia, Manning Andrew C., Korsbakken Jan Ivar, Peters Glen P., Canadell Josep G., Jackson Robert B., Boden Thomas A., Tans Pieter P., Andrews Oliver D., Arora Vivek K., Bakker Dorothee C. E., Barbero Leticia, Becker Meike, Betts Richard A., Bopp Laurent, Chevallier Frederic, Chini Louise P., Ciais Philippe, Cosca Catherine E., Cross Jessica, Currie Kim, Gasser Thomas, Harris Ian, Hauck Judith, Haverd Vanessa, Houghton Richard A., Hunt Christopher W., Hurtt George, Ilyina Tatiana, Jain Atul K., Kato Etsushi, Kautz Markus, Keeling Ralph F., Goldewijk Kees Klein, Koertzinger Arne, Landschuetzer Peter, Lefevre Nathalie, Lenton Andrew, Lienert Sebastian, Lima Ivan, Lombardozzi Danica, Metzl Nicolas, Millero Frank, Monteiro Pedro M. S., Munro David R., Nabel Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro, Nojiri Yukihiro, Padin X. Antonio, Peregon Anna, Pfeil Benjamin, Pierrot Denis, Poulter Benjamin, Rehder Gregor, Reimer Janet, Roedenbeck Christian, Schwinger Jorg, Seferian Roland, Skjelvan Ingunn, Stocker Benjamin D., Tian Hanqin, Tilbrook Bronte, Tubiello Francesco N., Van Der Laan-Luijkx Ingrid T., Van Der Werf Guido R., Van Heuven Steven, Viovy Nicolas, Vuichard Nicolas, Walker Anthony P., Watson Andrew J., Wiltshire Andrew J., Zaehle Soenke, Zhu Dan (2018). Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data, 10(1), 405-448. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00433/54428/