Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models
| Type | Article | ||||||||||||
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| Date | 2021-11 | ||||||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||||||
| Author(s) | Heneghan Ryan F.1, 2, Galbraith Eric1, 3, Blanchard Julia4, Harrison Cheryl5, Barrier Nicolas6, Bulman Catherine7, Cheung William8, Coll Marta9, Eddy Tyler D.10, Erauskin-Extramiana Maite11, Everett Jason D.12, 13, 14, Fernandes-Salvador Jose A.11, Gascuel Didier15, Guiet Jerome16, Maury Olivier6, Palacios-Abrantes Juliano17, Petrik Colleen M.18, Du Pontavice Hubert15, 17, Richardson Anthony J.13, 14, Steenbeek Jeroen9, Tai Travis C.17, Volkholz Jan19, Woodworth-Jefcoats Phoebe A.20, Tittensor Derek P.21 | ||||||||||||
| Affiliation(s) | 1 : Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain 2 : School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia 3 : Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada 4 : Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas, Australia 5 : School of Earth Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, USA 6 : MARBEC, IRD, Univ. Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète, France 7 : CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia 8 : Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6 T 1Z4, Canada 9 : Institute of Marie Science (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, n° 37-49 and Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, 08003, Barcelona, Spain 10 : Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, Canada 11 : AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Herrera Kaia, Portualdea z/g, 20110 Pasaia, San Sebastián, Spain 12 : CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland BioSciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia 13 : Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia 14 : Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia 15 : ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, INRAE, Rennes, France 16 : Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA 17 : The Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada 18 : Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA 19 : Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany 20 : Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Honolulu, HI, USA 21 : Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada |
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| Source | Progress In Oceanography (0079-6611) (Elsevier BV), 2021-11 , Vol. 198 , P. 102659 (16p.) | ||||||||||||
| DOI | 10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102659 | ||||||||||||
| WOS© Times Cited | 35 | ||||||||||||
| Keyword(s) | Climatic change, Modelling, Fishery oceanography, Marine ecology, FishMIP, Structural uncertainty | ||||||||||||
| Abstract | Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will improve our ability to project fisheries and other ecosystem services into the future, while also helping to identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore the mechanisms that underlie the diversity of responses to changes in temperature and LTLs in eight global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass and ecosystem structure (defined as the relative change of small and large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model biomass varied between −35% to +3% in response to warming, and -17% to +15% in response to LTL changes. There was little consensus about the spatial redistribution of biomass or changes in the balance between small and large organisms (ecosystem structure) in response to warming, an LTL impacts on total consumer biomass varied depending on the choice of LTL forcing terms. Overall, climate change impacts on consumer biomass and ecosystem structure are well approximated by the sum of temperature and LTL impacts, indicating an absence of nonlinear interaction between the models’ drivers. Our results highlight a lack of theoretical clarity about how to represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly how temperature impacts scale from individual to ecosystem level, and the need to better understand the two-way coupling between LTL organisms and consumers. We finish by identifying future research needs to strengthen global marine ecosystem modelling and improve projections of climate change impacts. |
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