Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
Type | Article | ||||||||||||
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Date | 2023-08 | ||||||||||||
Language | English | ||||||||||||
Author(s) | Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea1, 2, Blanchard Julia L.3, 4, Coll Marta5, 6, Pontavice Hubert Du7, Everett Jason D.8, 9, 10, Guiet Jerome11, Heneghan Ryan F.12, Maury Olivier13, Novaglio Camilla3, 4, Palacios-Abrantes Juliano14, Petrik Colleen M.15, Tittensor Derek P.1, 16, Lotze Heike K.1 | ||||||||||||
Affiliation(s) | 1 : Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada 2 : Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada 3 : Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia 4 : Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia 5 : Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain 6 : Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain 7 : Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA 8 : School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia 9 : Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia 10 : Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia 11 : Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA 12 : School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia 13 : MARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Sète, France 14 : Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada 15 : Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, USA 16 : United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK |
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Source | Facets (2371-1671) (Canadian Science Publishing), 2023-08 , Vol. 8 , P. 1-16 | ||||||||||||
DOI | 10.1139/facets-2023-0024 | ||||||||||||
Keyword(s) | climate change impacts, ensemble modelling, marine biomass projections, MPAs, OECMs, Atlantic Canada | ||||||||||||
Abstract | Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region. |
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