Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

Type Article
Date 2023-08
Language English
Author(s) Bryndum-Buchholz AndreaORCID1, 2, Blanchard Julia L.ORCID3, 4, Coll MartaORCID5, 6, Pontavice Hubert DuORCID7, Everett Jason D.ORCID8, 9, 10, Guiet Jerome11, Heneghan Ryan F.ORCID12, Maury Olivier13, Novaglio CamillaORCID3, 4, Palacios-Abrantes JulianoORCID14, Petrik Colleen M.ORCID15, Tittensor Derek P.ORCID1, 16, Lotze Heike K.ORCID1
Affiliation(s) 1 : Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
2 : Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada
3 : Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
4 : Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
5 : Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
6 : Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
7 : Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
8 : School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia
9 : Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia
10 : Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
11 : Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
12 : School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
13 : MARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Sète, France
14 : Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
15 : Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, USA
16 : United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
Source Facets (2371-1671) (Canadian Science Publishing), 2023-08 , Vol. 8 , P. 1-16
DOI 10.1139/facets-2023-0024
Keyword(s) climate change impacts, ensemble modelling, marine biomass projections, MPAs, OECMs, Atlantic Canada
Abstract

Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.

Full Text
File Pages Size Access
Publisher's official version 16 36 MB Open access
Supplementary Material 1 55 MB Open access
Top of the page

How to cite 

Bryndum-Buchholz Andrea, Blanchard Julia L., Coll Marta, Pontavice Hubert Du, Everett Jason D., Guiet Jerome, Heneghan Ryan F., Maury Olivier, Novaglio Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes Juliano, Petrik Colleen M., Tittensor Derek P., Lotze Heike K. (2023). Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. Facets, 8, 1-16. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00856/96825/