Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).
Le Quere C., Moriarty R., Andrew R. M., Peters G. P., Ciais P., Friedlingstein P., Jones S. D., Sitch S., Tans P., Arneth A., Boden T. A., Bopp L., Bozec Y., Canadell J. G., Chini L. P., Chevallier F., Cosca C. E., Harris I., Hoppema M., Houghton R. A., House J. I., Jain A. K., Johannessen T., Kato E., Keeling R. F., Kitidis V., Klein Goldewijk K., Koven C., Landa C. S., Landschuetzer P., Lenton A., Lima I. D., Marland G., Mathis J. T., Metzl N., Nojiri Y., Olsen A., Ono T., Peng S., Peters W., Pfeil B., Poulter B., Raupach M. R., Regnier P., Roedenbeck C., Saito S., Salisbury J. E., Schuster U., Schwinger J., Seferian R., Segschneider J., Steinhoff T., Stocker B. D., Sutton A. J., Takahashi T., Tilbrook B., van der Werf G. R., Viovy N., Wang Y. -P., Wanninkhof R., Wiltshire A., Zeng N. (2015). Global carbon budget 2014. Earth System Science Data. 7 (1). 47-85. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00291/40251/
Le Quere Corinne, Andrew Robbie M., Friedlingstein Pierre, Sitch Stephen, Pongratz Julia, Manning Andrew C., Korsbakken Jan Ivar, Peters Glen P., Canadell Josep G., Jackson Robert B., Boden Thomas A., Tans Pieter P., Andrews Oliver D., Arora Vivek K., Bakker Dorothee C. E., Barbero Leticia, Becker Meike, Betts Richard A., Bopp Laurent, Chevallier Frederic, Chini Louise P., Ciais Philippe, Cosca Catherine E., Cross Jessica, Currie Kim, Gasser Thomas, Harris Ian, Hauck Judith, Haverd Vanessa, Houghton Richard A., Hunt Christopher W., Hurtt George, Ilyina Tatiana, Jain Atul K., Kato Etsushi, Kautz Markus, Keeling Ralph F., Goldewijk Kees Klein, Koertzinger Arne, Landschuetzer Peter, Lefevre Nathalie, Lenton Andrew, Lienert Sebastian, Lima Ivan, Lombardozzi Danica, Metzl Nicolas, Millero Frank, Monteiro Pedro M. S., Munro David R., Nabel Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka Shin-ichiro, Nojiri Yukihiro, Padin X. Antonio, Peregon Anna, Pfeil Benjamin, Pierrot Denis, Poulter Benjamin, Rehder Gregor, Reimer Janet, Roedenbeck Christian, Schwinger Jorg, Seferian Roland, Skjelvan Ingunn, Stocker Benjamin D., Tian Hanqin, Tilbrook Bronte, Tubiello Francesco N., van der Laan-luijkx Ingrid T., van der Werf Guido R., Van Heuven Steven, Viovy Nicolas, Vuichard Nicolas, Walker Anthony P., Watson Andrew J., Wiltshire Andrew J., Zaehle Soenke, Zhu Dan (2018). Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data. 10 (1). 405-448. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00433/54428/
Le Quere Corinne, Andrew Robbie M., Canadell Josep G., Sitch Stephen, Korsbakken Jan Ivar, Peters Glen P., Manning Andrew C., Boden Thomas A., Tans Pieter P., Houghton Richard A., Keeling Ralph F., Alin Simone, Andrews Oliver D., Anthoni Peter, Barbero Leticia, Bopp Laurent, Chevallier Frederic, Chini Louise P., Ciais Philippe, Currie Kim, Delire Christine, Doney Scott C., Friedlingstein Pierre, Gkritzalis Thanos, Harris Ian, Hauck Judith, Haverd Vanessa, Hoppema Mario, Goldewijk Kees Klein, Jain Atul K., Kato Etsushi, Koertzinger Arne, Landschuetzer Peter, Lefevre Nathalie, Lenton Andrew, Lienert Sebastian, Lombardozzi Danica, Melton Joe R., Metzl Nicolas, Millero Frank, Monteiro Pedro M. S., Munro David R., Nabel Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka Shin-ichiro, O'brien Kevin, Olsen Are, Omar Abdirahman M., Ono Tsuneo, Pierrot Denis, Poulter Benjamin, Roedenbeck Christian, Salisbury Joe, Schuster Ute, Schwinger Joerg, Seferian Roland, Skjelvan Ingunn, Stocker Benjamin D., Sutton Adrienne J., Takahashi Taro, Tian Hanqin, Tilbrook Bronte, van der Laan-luijkx Ingrid T., van der Werf Guido R., Viovy Nicolas, Walker Anthony P., Wiltshire Andrew J., Zaehle Soenke (2016). Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data. 8 (2). 605-649. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00383/49401/
Le Quere C., Moriarty R., Andrew R. M., Canadell J. G., Sitch S., Korsbakken J. I., Friedlingstein P., Peters G. P., Andres R. J., Boden T. A., Houghton R. A., House J. I., Keeling R. F., Tans P., Arneth A., Bakker D. C. E., Barbero L., Bopp L., Chang J., Chevallier F., Chini L. P., Ciais P., Fader M., Feely R. A., Gkritzalis T., Harris I., Hauck J., Ilyina T., Jain A. K., Kato E., Kitidis V., Goldewijk K. Klein, Koven C., Landschuetzer P., Lauvset S. K., Lefevre N., Lenton A., Lima I. D., Metzl N., Millero F., Munro D. R., Murata A., Nabel J. E. M. S., Nakaoka S., Nojiri Y., O'brien K., Olsen A., Ono T., Perez Florian, Pfeil B., Pierrot D., Poulter B., Rehder G., Roedenbeck C., Saito S., Schuster U., Schwinger J., Seferian R., Steinhoff T., Stocker B. D., Sutton A. J., Takahashi T., Tilbrook B., van der Laan-luijkx I. T., van der Werf G. R., Van Heuven S., Vandemark D., Viovy N., Wiltshire A., Zaehle S., Zeng N. (2015). Global Carbon Budget 2015. Earth System Science Data. 7 (2). 349-396. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00383/49442/
Related datasets
Metzl, Nicolas (2015). Underway carbon dioxide in the Indian Ocean of Marion-Dufresne cruise 35MF20120125. PANGAEA. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.843746