Global Carbon Budget 2018

Type Article
Date 2018-12
Language English
Author(s) Le Quere CorinneORCID1, Andrew Robbie M.2, Friedlingstein PierreORCID3, Sitch Stephen4, Hauck JudithORCID5, Pongratz JuliaORCID6, 7, Pickers Penelope A.8, Korsbakken Jan IvarORCID2, Peters Glen P.2, Canadell Josep G.9, Arneth AlmutORCID10, Arora Vivek K.11, Barbero LeticiaORCID12, 13, Bastos AnaORCID6, Bopp Laurent14, Chevallier FredericORCID15, Chini Louise P.16, Ciais Philippe15, Doney Scott C.17, Gkritzalis Thanos18, Goll Daniel S.15, Harris Ian19, Haverd VanessaORCID20, Hoffman Forrest M.21, Hoppema MarioORCID5, Houghton Richard A.22, Hurtt George16, Ilyina TatianaORCID7, Jain Atul K.23, Johannessen Truls24, 25, Jones Chris D.26, Kato EtsushiORCID27, Keeling Ralph F.28, Goldewijk Kees KleinORCID29, 30, Landschuetzer Peter7, Lefevre Nathalie31, Lienert Sebastian32, 33, Liu ZhuORCID1, 59, Lombardozzi DanicaORCID34, Metzl Nicolas31, Munro David R.35, 36, Nabel Julia E. M. S.7, Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro37, Neill Craig38, 39, Olsen AreORCID24, 25, Ono Tsueno42, Patra Prabir43, Peregon Anna15, Peters WouterORCID44, 45, Peylin Philippe15, Pfeil Benjamin24, 25, 40, 41, Pierrot Denis12, 13, Poulter BenjaminORCID46, Rehder Gregor47, Resplandy LaureORCID48, Robertson Eddy26, Rocher Matthias49, Roedenbeck Christian50, Schuster Ute4, Schwinger Jorg40, 41, Seferian RolandORCID49, Skjelvan IngunnORCID40, 41, Steinhoff Tobias48, Sutton Adrienne52, Tans Pieter P.53, Tian HanqinORCID54, Tilbrook BronteORCID38, 39, Tubiello Francesco N.55, Van Der Laan-Luijkx Ingrid T.44, Van Der Werf Guido R.56, Viovy NicolasORCID15, Walker Anthony P.57, 58, Wiltshire Andrew J.26, Wright Rebecca1, 8, Zaehle Soenke50, Zheng BoORCID15
Affiliation(s) 1 : Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
2 : CICERO, Ctr Int Climate Res, N-0349 Oslo, Norway.
3 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England.
4 : Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England.
5 : Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Inst, Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany.
6 : Ludwig Maximilians Univ Munchen, Luisenstr 37, D-80333 Munich, Germany.
7 : Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
8 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Ctr Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
9 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Global Carbon Project, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
10 : Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meterol & Climate Res Atmospher Environm Res, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany.
11 : Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Div, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada.
12 : Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Studies, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
13 : NOAA, AOML, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
14 : Ecole Normale Super, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Meteorol Dynam, CNRS ENS UPMC X,Dept Geosci, 24 Rue Lhomond, F-75005 Paris, France.
15 : CE Orme Merisiers, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
16 : Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
17 : Univ Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA.
18 : Flanders Marine Inst VLIZ, Wanelaarkaai 7, B-8400 Oostende, Belgium.
19 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, NCAS Climate, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
20 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
21 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Computat Earth Sci Grp, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
22 : WHRC, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.
23 : Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61821 USA.
24 : Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Allegaten 70, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
25 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Allegaten 70, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
26 : Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.
27 : IAE, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1050003, Japan.
28 : Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.
29 : PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30,POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands.
30 : Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Dept IMEW, Fac Geosci, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
31 : Univ Paris 06, UPMC, Sorbonne Univ, CNRS,IRD,MNHN,LOCEAN,IPSL Lab, F-75252 Paris, France.
32 : Univ Bern, Phys Inst, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland.
33 : Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland.
34 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam, Terr Sci Sect, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
35 : Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
36 : Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
37 : NIES, Ctr Global Environm Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
38 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.
39 : Univ Tasmania, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperat Res Ctr, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
40 : NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
41 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
42 : Japan Fisheries Res & Educ Agcy, Natl Res Inst Far Sea Fisheries, Kanazawa Ku, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2368648, Japan.
43 : JAMSTEC, Dept Environm Geochem Cycle Res, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan.
44 : Wageningen Univ & Res, Dept Meteorol & Air Qual, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
45 : Univ Groningen, Ctr Isotope Res, Nijenborgh 6, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands.
46 : NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA.
47 : Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemunde, D-18119 Rostock, Germany.
48 : Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci & Princeton Environm, Inst Princeton, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
49 : CNRS, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, UMR Meteofrance, 42 Ave Gaspard Coriolis, F-31100 Toulouse, France.
50 : Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, POB 600164, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
51 : GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Dusternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, Germany.
52 : NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA.
53 : NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
54 : Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, 602 Ducan Dr, Auburn, AL 36849 USA.
55 : Food & Agr Org United Nations, Stat Div, Via Terme Caracalla, I-00153 Rome, Italy.
56 : Vrije Univ, Fac Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
57 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Environm Sci Div, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
58 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
59 : Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China.
Source Earth System Science Data (1866-3508) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2018-12 , Vol. 10 , N. 4 , P. 2141-2194
DOI 10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018
WOS© Times Cited 433
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land -use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B-IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma. For the last decade available (2008-2017), E-FF was 9.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 1.5 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.7 +/- 0.02 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 3.2 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1), with a budget imbalance B-IM of 0.5 GtC yr(-1) indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in E-FF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1). Also for 2017, E-LUC was 1.4 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 4.6 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.5 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 3.8 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1), with a B-IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0 +/- 0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in E-FF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr(-1) persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land -use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.

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Le Quere Corinne, Andrew Robbie M., Friedlingstein Pierre, Sitch Stephen, Hauck Judith, Pongratz Julia, Pickers Penelope A., Korsbakken Jan Ivar, Peters Glen P., Canadell Josep G., Arneth Almut, Arora Vivek K., Barbero Leticia, Bastos Ana, Bopp Laurent, Chevallier Frederic, Chini Louise P., Ciais Philippe, Doney Scott C., Gkritzalis Thanos, Goll Daniel S., Harris Ian, Haverd Vanessa, Hoffman Forrest M., Hoppema Mario, Houghton Richard A., Hurtt George, Ilyina Tatiana, Jain Atul K., Johannessen Truls, Jones Chris D., Kato Etsushi, Keeling Ralph F., Goldewijk Kees Klein, Landschuetzer Peter, Lefevre Nathalie, Lienert Sebastian, Liu Zhu, Lombardozzi Danica, Metzl Nicolas, Munro David R., Nabel Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro, Neill Craig, Olsen Are, Ono Tsueno, Patra Prabir, Peregon Anna, Peters Wouter, Peylin Philippe, Pfeil Benjamin, Pierrot Denis, Poulter Benjamin, Rehder Gregor, Resplandy Laure, Robertson Eddy, Rocher Matthias, Roedenbeck Christian, Schuster Ute, Schwinger Jorg, Seferian Roland, Skjelvan Ingunn, Steinhoff Tobias, Sutton Adrienne, Tans Pieter P., Tian Hanqin, Tilbrook Bronte, Tubiello Francesco N., Van Der Laan-Luijkx Ingrid T., Van Der Werf Guido R., Viovy Nicolas, Walker Anthony P., Wiltshire Andrew J., Wright Rebecca, Zaehle Soenke, Zheng Bo (2018). Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data, 10(4), 2141-2194. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00675/78676/